metals,oil and everything else
orbital warp
July 24…)
“Strive to be the baby at every christening, the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral.” Alice Roosevelt Longworth
In the news
On second thought, “the Fed needs to cut rates,” says Bill Dudley. The scion and steward of the NY Fed for a decade during the post GFC years defected from the “higher for longer” camp yesterday, joining a chorus of weighty and influential voices.
Deutsche Bank, suffering a long-term form of decrepitude not unlike the killer of CS, stumbled on the flight steps again pausing its buyback. Tech and luxury earnings are meh. Germany contracts, according to BBG. JPY breaks lower and the “wake” of the carry roils the waters of usd fx in more ways than one. Here we go.
In my opinion, the death of the Yen carry is not unlike a pregnancy. Its ultimate outcome was decided months ago, and its baptismal blessings are upon us. Nature has a tendency to keep us guessing on the timing of these things, but the reliability of time is always linear. The BOJ will probably give it some line and then reel it in next week as Powell speaks.
This is usd negative, but gold is rolling to December and already digesting long term dollar weakness at $2400/toz. NEM reports after the close today. Two very significant metrics will be walking the red carpet as the veritable star of the mining sector comes under scrutiny: “all in sustaining costs vs average sales prices during the period” and total global gold production for 2024 which is now anticipated at another yoy record....of which NEM is the largest (cash cow) free world contributor.
