market vibes

market vibes

lots of charts

market vibes

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Alyosha
Sep 12, 2024
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September 12…) 

“A rich man is someone who isn’t afraid to ask the sales person to show him something cheaper.” Jack Benny

Comex copper is resolving an eight-session range higher after challenging the $4.00 level daily. We can’t say yet where it is going but we can say where it doesn’t want to be. Technically copper is bottoming, OI has liquidated to literal horizontal days of unchanged, volumes are down to a yoga heartbeat.  

In Asia (China) inventories have peaked and turned down.  

LME inventories in the Americas have dropped to zero for months and there is no sign they will rise soon, if ever.  

Gold.

Exchange data is changing but prices are not. I often say a market that clings to its highs implies unfilled buying below (or lows implies unfilled selling above). Meanwhile the sellers of risk premia and vol collect cash every day and longs owning bullion for alpha pay contango albeit at .25 bps cheaper next week.  

The key here is primary demand for gold in China, Russia, India et al, doesn’t care about alpha, they care about quantity. When this range is depleted of every last ounce, especially if the length in futures gets shaken out, they will go looking for new sellers.  

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