magic beans
market vibes
March 4…)
“Don't worry about the horse being blind, just load the wagon.” John Madden
In the news this morning
Tariffs are like out of the gate this morning. On China’s list of 29 items, all of them are chicken and pork. Considering the deficits the US is footing, Trump has nothing to lose and if it’s a game of chicken (and pork), he’s not going to blink. Trump halted military aid to Ukraine. I’m sure we’ll get an earful about Ukraine and NATO tonight.
Aramco plans to cut its dividend by 32% in 2025. This would be a very strong indication the world’s largest oil company is tightening its belt in anticipation of lower oil prices.
In the markets
Gold is back within a single day’s ATR (average true range) of an all-time high in typically quiet trading this morning. OI was unchanged yesterday, indicating Monday’s session traded flat. The BOE gold is tucked into the Comex and resting peacefully. The arbs have all been settled. Back to business as usual.
Question: Will weaker oil force the FOMC to cut rates and weaken the dollar? Or will lower oil and lower rates be offsetting or bearish for gold? With oil and the dollar lower this morning, gold is higher, so… there it is.
CME Yen futures are making a new high for the year this morning on rising OI and long-time frame range extension in all fractal samples. Does it have anything to do with Japanese investors selling NDX and USD and bringing Yen home? I think it does.
I don’t expect a replay of August 5 but the trends imply rising pressure on the FOMC to cut .25 bps.
Bitcoin is in a precarious position. The “Trump pop” did more damage than good. And his endorsement for Crypto was strongly XRP and SOL … tepid for Bitcoin. Falling OI implies falling ETF AUM.
NDX made new lows for the year yesterday. There is an overwhelming amount of red in the charts of all three stock indexes. If you’re thinking of a BTD entry, it might be good to wait for a climax. Prices are not oversold, volume is still rising, and there’s a cascade of narratives still on the calendar tonight, Friday and next week.
The Dow is an interesting setup. Yesterday’s range engulfed 4 prior days of rising and high volume. The resolution of this heavily traded range should be decisive and the clearing house will force the losers to act. So far risk is still coming in.
Some RVs for a change today, highlighting just how incredibly cheap oil is as it slides lower. And how incredibly expensive gold is with a new all time high a few bux away. And … incredibly, how the trillionaire monoplies are literally in outer space… relatively speaking. Interesting stuff.
