May 12…)
“No wife can endure a gambling husband unless he’s a winner.” Thomas Dewar (Scotch Whiskey distiller, ca 1920).
No economic data today. CPI tomorrow; survey expectations are sharply higher. For anyone trading grains, the USDA will publish its first official forecasts for the 2025/2026 marketing year and old crop carryover estimates at 12:00 noon EDT.
In the news
It would be unfair to characterize Team Trump’s achievements this weekend as anything less than a success. The tariff tantrums have all but deflated. We’ve all seen the news and the market’s full-throated approval. On Friday, Kevin Hassett said as many as 24 deals are in an advanced stage of completion, and it’s likely many will be announced this week.
A ceasefire between Pakistan and India was brokered personally by Trump. He will travel to Saudi Arabia from May 13 through May 16, a trip that will notably exclude Israel. Trump has been a steadfast supporter of Israel, and Netanyahu has been a steadfast supporter of more war. In my opinion, Trump is excluding Netanyahu, not Israel.
A meeting is scheduled between Zelensky and Putin in Turkey on Thursday, May 15, very much to the credit of KSA’s influence. Trump is in the Middle East discussing détente with Iran as well, which is progressing with the help of Putin. The focus is trade and investment, prioritizing economic ties, which are fundamentally essential to security and peace.
Trump said he will sign an executive order this morning to cut US prescription drug prices by as much as 80%. This is a 95/5 issue that has vexed Americans for years.
In lighter fare, DOGE reported 100,000 active government employees are collecting unemployment insurance,, according to the Gateway Pundit.
In the markets
The dollar sliced through overhead resistance on news that both China and the US have agreed to cut tariffs significantly and mutually.
Gold is sharply lower, stocks are higher, crude is higher, bitcoin is up a bit, and bonds are a touch lower. The sum of it all is a declarative statement of risk-on approval. Will it last? Let’s check it out…
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