lo and behold
market vibes
August 7…)
“Stalin is the most popular figure in all of Russia.” Vladimir Putin
The BLS reports initial jobless and continuing claims, productivity, and unit labor costs at 8:30 AM EDT. At 10:30, the EIA reports natural gas data. At 1:00 PM, the 30-year Treasury auction takes place. Bostic and Musalem speak.
Pop quiz: ten cases of beer to anyone who can quote US productivity in absolute numbers or % change MoM, off the top of their head. No cheating! FWIW, I never put on a trade on Thursday until I’ve thoroughly analyzed unit labor costs. A case of beer to the runner-up.
In the news
Putin and Trump will meet within the next few days, the Kremlin said Thursday. The short list for the next Fed Chair candidates is down to Warsh and Hassett.
In oil news, Argentina’s Vaca Muerta lifted an average of 771,888 barrels of crude oil per day during June 2025, according to official government data. Production is expected to double by 2030.
Suddenly, according to Lori Chavez at the BLS , jobs held by Native Americans rose by almost 2 million workers, while jobs held by foreign-born workers fell 237,000 year-over-year in July. The BLS, under fire for questionable data, says, “[America’s population] 16 years and older increased by 3 million in the last 7 months.”
Bryce Elder at the Financial Times opines, “This doesn’t make a heap of sense: any increase in the 16-plus native-born population this year would imply either a higher birth rate in 2009 or a sudden increase in Boomer longevity, but US birth rates have been trending steadily lower since 2006.” So there it is.
In the markets
Stock indexes are higher because Putin and Trump are expected to meet, and at this stage of global involvement, the terms for a ceasefire will be agreed down to the shoelaces prior to the summit. Yesterday, stocks were higher on tariff and trade progress and, lo and behold, the whole world now toils under the yoke of US tariffs.
Buyers have taken control this morning and it is likely the algos will be active on the bell, twapping through the session into the close.
Up next…Lots of charts on oil and metals this morning. Plus the sun also rises in the vibe.
