let it be
market vibes
September 18…)
Initial jobless claims today and Philly Fed at 8:30, rarely algo sensitive. I doubt if anyone can remember the level of any BLS economic data week to week off the top of their head. Jobless claims below.
In the news
Yesterday’s post-FOMC press conference was one of the most nonsensical I can remember. Powell outlined a Sophie’s choice between inflation and “softening” employment data as if it was just one of those things. I’m not sure if he was hoping for empathy when he said, “this makes our job harder.” Lol…No discussion about BLS revisions, gold prices or extreme valuations. He did say services inflation is moderating and the committee has decided to favor employment, over inflation. So there is that.
What he should have said, “In situations like this, we are going to let the markets set rates for the near term.” However, gold is doing that for him.
Elsewhere, China has been buying millions of barrels of oil that it can’t use and putting them into storage at the rate of $10 billion USD so far this year. Javier Blas at Bloomberg says about half of China’s storage capacity is filled, so they can keep buying if they feel like it.
Why are they buying so much oil? Any number of reasons, he says. I think China is a long-term responsive buyer, and oil is cheap. What is odd is that China is buying the majority of it from Iran and Russia, and neither Europe nor the US is enforcing sanctions on China, and China doesn’t seem to care if they do.
Polymarket odds on a government shutdown are trading at 56% this morning. Mamdani is trading at 84%. The Jays won again, now seven games from a bye..
In the markets
A focus on stocks, gold and the dollar this morning and, hopefully a week or two of low stress coasting in the vibe.
