legbreakers
market vibes
July 31…)
“I don't care how close you are. In the end, your friends are gonna let you down.” Tony Soprano
Core PCE the Fed’s prederred inflation guage came in at .3% mom vs .3% expected and .2% previous. Personal income ans spending were a little hot.
In the news
(Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions on Wednesday on over 115 Iran-linked individuals, entities and vessels, in a sign the Trump administration is doubling down on its "maximum pressure" campaign after bombing Tehran's key nuclear sites in June. Oil Price reporting similar US sanctions on Chinese imports of Iranian oil.
On May 13, 2025, Trump spoke at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum in Riyadh, emphasizing “doing busines” rather than regime change. He said, “In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built… And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand.” The US has announced 50% tariffs sanctions on Brazil, 25% tariff and penalties on India and severe tariff penalties on buyers of Russian oil. I could be wrong, but these new tariffs and sanctions look a lot like regime change.
Eleanor Pringle of Fortune opined this morning: “Powell didn’t just refuse to deliver a rate cut, he also hinted a raise could have been on the cards. [Indeed, a hawkish Powell] even used the dreaded r-word (“raise”), having suggested he is responsive enough to calls to “look through” tariff-induced inflation by not increasing interest rates, a notion which likely would have sent the Oval Office into a fury.”
7:48 AM EDT: BESSENT: WOULD EXPECT FED NOMINATION ANNOUNCEMENT BY YEAR-END … WILL BE INTERVIEWING PEOPLE FOR THE FED
In the markets
“On July 28, 2025, Goldman Sachs withdrew its long Comex-LME spread trade recommendation, citing the possibility of the Trump administration striking copper-supply deals that could mitigate the impact of the tariffs on U.S. pricing.” The note was published by Bloomberg Law an unusual source.
Two days later, Trump exempted refined copper from tariffs. Copper is still an essential piece in the AI jigsaw, and this morning it’s in the bargain bin. If you believe in the AI thesis, this could be a reasonable entry for long-term players.
A mixed bag of markets this morning, very hard to to trade with confidence and “legbreakers” in the vibe. let’s get started with gold:
