laconic equanimity

market vibes

February 18…)

In ordinary news over the weekend

Russia and The US met in KSA to discuss peace in Ukraine without Zelensky or any NATO representation. Lavrov: “There will be no territorial concessions.”

A Bank of America survey via Bloomberg showed investors are the most on bullish equities since 2010. The survey also showed that global recession expectations fell to a three-year low, and 77% of fund managers expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2025. [German investor] sentiment is the highest in two years. Goldman riased it 2025 target for gold to $3100 from $3000. De Santis said he wants to abolish real estate taxes in Florida

The Fed’s Chris Waller called the [inflation] figures out last week “mildly disappointing.” In fact, CPI MOM was 0 in June and rose every month to >5% in January.

In other news

The latest item from the “Gold Caper Files” posted on X yesterday is an absolute must watch. It seems this isn’t the first rodeo to be held at Fort Knox.

In Hockey, Canada beat Finland 5-3 to set up rematch with United States in a 4 nations final.

In the markets

Oil

April WTI has been well defended at $70/ barrel, rejecting the price 5 times in the last 10 sessions. With peace approacing in Ukraine and Trump determined to stop the killing, it is likely Russian sanctions will be lowered if not ended and the markets have kept that in mind. Concurrently Trump’s open hostility towards Iran may simply replace Russian sanctions with new sanctions on Teheran. I think the Mullahs will make a deal. Rubio’s speech last week was an ultimatum: make peace… or fight for keeps.

April May is a little higher at .23 back but well within contango on dovish news. Cracks have stalled at recent highs and the longer dated spreads have held in tight ranges for nearly a month. Peace is bearish. You decide.

Gold, silver, equities and Bitcoin up next and some thoughts on DOGE’s next victims in the vibe…