June 10…)
“A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money.” W.C. Fields
There was one data release this morning, Small Business Optimism at 6:00 AM, tracking 800 US companies, which rose to 98.8 from 95.8, having fallen from 105 on Jan 1, 2025. Apart from that, the Fed’s pre-FOMC external communications blackout has been in force since Friday, June 6, at midnight. CPI tomorrow.
In the News
Major themes are still top of mind. China tariff negotiations will have the most impact if there’s a breakthrough or a failure, in my opinion. The images on TV from LA are wild, but the eye of the viewer is jaded by years of this type of smash-and-grab incendiary unrest. As long as it doesn’t metastasize concurrently to other cities with thousands of Marines and the National Guard playing migrant whack-a-mole at once nationally, it’s just another day in LA.
We can always rely on the Bablon Bee to put a smile on our travails.
In lighter fare, a Chinese lender’s stunt to woo depositors with gifts, including the wildly popular Labubu dolls, has been barred by financial regulators, underscoring the increasingly fraught battle among Chinese banks for customers as interest rates and profit margins fall.
In the markets
June S&Ps spent an undisturbed evening in a typically narrow range last night, following a range on Monday that was barely 10 bps of price (.20/6000) for the second time in three sessions. This would be as close to nano-volatility as ever in the history of equity trading since Genesis. Volume yesterday was the lowest in nearly three months, but open interest rose 40,000 lots.
Since May 29, 80,000 lots of new long and new short positions came in at an average entry price of 6000, 50% of it yesterday. What does it mean? I can’t say, other than there is a single price position worth circa $24 billion of notional value that took eight sessions on vaporous daily volume to execute. I doubt it can be liquidated with similar patience or facility. Stay tuned.
WTI, gasoline, silver, gold dollars and bitcoin straight ahead and… the silence of money…in the vibe.
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