keep it simple

market vibes

March 13… )

“The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.” Henry Kissinger would have been a good trader.

PPI this morning. Some forecasters think PPI will come in higher than the +0.3% survey because tariffs have already started pushing up prices.

In the news

The IEA said it expects a crude surplus of 600,000 to 1 million bpd in 2025, following OPEC+'s decision to restart output.

1.2 mm bpd of Russian crude is flowing to China unfettered by US sanctions this month; the biggest daily volume since December (data tracked by Kpler).

Citi says copper will trade $10,000 on the LME by June.

Vultures in London are buying Russian debt betting on peace. GS and JPM and other banks are brokering Russian assets (people familiar with the matter said, via BBG this morning).

Fentanyl crossing the southern border in February was the lowest since 2021 according to BBG. Illegal migrant crossings were the lowest in US history (CBS/Axios).

As for inflation… Median Manhattan apartment rents hit a record $4,500 in February, according to Douglas Elliman, with bidding wars in almost 27% of deals.

In the markets

April gold is +8 following a quiet session overseas. OI was down a smidge on the Comex yesterday. Silver is down a penny. Copper is unchanged.

I checked LME copper's technical development on my Bloomberg and it's no more or less exciting than the COMEX. Copper prices are auctioning higher somewhere but the only data that seems to be moving are prices… definitely not futures. It’s tradable but there is very little exchange information to manage your risk.

"At the sound of the tone, leave your deal."

Oil, bonds, FX, S&Ps, and bitcoin plus my vibe as usual this morning…thinking a time for caution and patience but confidence in direction.