just charts today

market vibes

October 27…)

In the news

No data today

Multiple suspects nabbed in Louvre jewel heist/ game 3 in the world series in LA tonight (tied 1-1) / Mamdani rally chanting “tax the rich”/ real estate in Florida is dirt cheap in places the rich don’t go but at these prices … they might!

Melissa up to Cat 5 but headed northeast over Jamaica, natty is chill.

in the markets

We have a failed 3-day up wiggle in gold. Not a killer development but not a good sign. %D in the slow stoch is trending down indicating rising selling pressure. Volume indicates decelerating urgency to buy and sell gold, better said uncertainty.

This compression study going back to October 15 shows gold in a defensive position. Prices failed two challenges of the void between $4160 and $4190. Prices this morning are well below the point of control for the 10-session period and accepting lower prices where they had rejected them on good volume last week.

The October compression study shows good support at the next POC circa $3980 and strong support at the single print or void area between $3920 and $3940.

Development in silver is becoming somewhat negative. It is still in a tight range at the bottom of last week’s heavy liquidation and exchange data is decelerating. Nothing new. Let it be.

Trump is out of the country for a few days doing his day job, making deals. Oil is going to have to wait for clarity from Ukraine which seems to heating up. Putin and Zelenskyy were still bashing each other this weekend. However, BBG is reporting OPEC plans to continue to raise bpd at a measurable rate.

If sanctions are effective or they are ratcheted up oil supplies will tighten near-term. If there is a whiff of detente in Ukraine, oil will plunge. There are no shorts left to buy it and oil is a massive commodity in constant motion which cannot be stopped and the quantities in the pipeline (oil at sea) are growing daily.

S&Ps will gap higher which is inconsistent with a low vol imperative. But the index has been going up without urgency and there has been a lot of liquidation since the rare earth kerfuffle. The reason the DMI is still red is the aggregate of negative data October 9 is dominating and skewing the algorithm. Range extension higher will turn the indicator blue (positive). Although S&Ps are higher week over week they have actually gone up one day since October 9.

NDX is a better expression of what’s happening in stock indexes… Better open interest and trending %D although volume is still low, meaning I think, AUM flowing into the market is relatively low. This might have something to do with it.

Bitcoin is going to gap higher with stocks. If you missed the evening wrap on Oct 24, check out the bitcoin chart at the bottom of the note. We are coming into a post roll zone that has been higher for the last few months.

my vibe

Stocks seem to be heating up. Technically gold and silver are definitely decelerating. Oil is a dangerous place to gamble.

X posters keep saying “Just wait until the $7 trillions from money markets dash out to get higher yields when the Fed cuts rates!!” Since there are no safe trends other than new all time highs in stocks (everywhere) and who knows which stocks are safe… Definitely no safe havens in gold at $4000 and silver in the high $40s… could be but the trends are short term flat to lower.

Where will money expect to be well treated? Wherever it is certain to be safe next week.

when toxic dudes were cool

dudes

good luck today!

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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