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November 3…)

“Brevity is the soul of wit.” Polonius

Until the Dollar Index breaks above its range top decisively, it’s an overbought condition with overbought technical readings. This rally may have had a suppressive effect on gold and silver. If it takes off, that could put pressure on metals. I think Yen weakness has confused the traditional USD/gold relationship, but in the end, a strong dollar is bearish for gold.

Gold is continuing to consolidate in a developing period of horizontal activity. Every reliable technical indicator is decelerating. The early range top and bottom are $4171 to $3901, but as the Point of control develops, range extension outside of these highs and lows is probable without necessarily initiating a new trend.

However, AI, Ukraine, currency debasement, and trade war narratives are still unchanged in intensity. The risk is still to the upside, but time degrades everything in markets.

The same activity dominates silver, not slamming on the brakes but a rapid deceleration. I read this as the metals’ return to London from NY adding liquidity and relaxing the overall market stress in October.

S&Ps mirror gold and silver but with a different location in the trend. Today could be any day in the last 10 sessions, patiently waiting for the next imbalance. If the stock market can’t go down, it must ultimately go up.

WTI is unchanged following a JMMC meeting and a 137k bpd increase in OPEC quotas. Open interest, volume, and prices are understandably unchanged, and unchanged prices cannot validate a narrative. There is no glut, and there is no shortage except in the minds of news vendors using the same AI for their stories.

Welcome to November Bitcoin futures. It appears a lot of length was liquidated at month-end. That could be bullish, meaning all the weak length is out. Especially if stock go up.

my vibe

November to October is looking like oatmeal to Champagne. Every market charted above exhibits similar mostly untradable characteristics unless you have a strong view. In that case, the nice thing about narrow ranges is stops are low risk and easy to locate.

Cheers!

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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