just charts

market vibes

July 21… )

DXY breaking under this very fragile T line. I’m thinking the range holds until the FOMC at the end of the month. If it doesn’t that’s a nail in the DXY coffin… with or without a cut.

We have a rising wedge and a sequence of DMI 1-bar false positives. A move higher on volume and rising OI could be an indication prices are beginning to move away from this period of hyper-compression at the $3,345.00 point of control.

Silver is higher after missing a potential 30 mm SLV share creation last Friday. Pennies count! But there’s still millions of toz gamma in this $34/$36 SLV zone from July 25 through September. The usual narratives on Telegram and X “too the Moon!!!” from Apes and stackers. No investment analysis anywhere. Literally zero.

The trend in platinum is solidly in force. I saw a news item this morning that said Russia sold half its metals production to China last month (quarter? Either way, it speaks volumes).

Copper might be starting an up auction, breaking higher from this flag or consolidation following the all-time highs. Tariffs are not taxes or inflationary. They are fundamental not technical, and should be seen like any other fundamental.

The last trading day for August WTI is tomorrow. I have a feeling $66/barrel is going to be for WTI what $3,345 was for gold.

The Sept-Oct roll takes the baton from August under completely different circumstances. The driving season is waning, the war in Israel is limited to Gaza. New OPEC barrels are flowing. A rate cut might be bullish, but September is a long way off. By then, we’ll be pricing winter distillates, winter RBOB, and who knows what the economy will be doing.

Distillates are still tight relative to gasoline.

S&Ps keep making 2-penny highs and sliding back to a very narrow range. It’s hard to make money on the highs. Stocks are expensive. Can they get cheaper on a rally? Maybe if the FOMC comes to the party. If I were Powell, I’d cut and be done with it. Personally, I’d see that as a sign of strength, not weakness.

The narrative in bitcoin is disintermediate flows away from the coin into stablecoins. The entire sector is growing. New money is coming into crypto.

my vibe

Just getting back into the groove after a tour through the weeds writing about our history this weekend. Metals are moving in harmony, reinforcing each other. Stocks can’t hold a rally.

Be fashionably early in money, fashionably late for dinner.

Have a great day,

JJ