jelly beans

market vibes

April 17…)

I know I have eaten more good food, drunk more beer and fine wine, had more friends, and seen more of the world than most men ever will." Andre the giant

In the news

No news is good news today.

In the markets

There is a “death cross” in S&Ps this week. The 50 day MA has crossed below the 200 day MA. I always say, “If you’re still long under 200 DMA you’re usually in trouble. Jones says “Nothing good happens under the 200 D MA.” This is long time frame development but echoing the master, there is never much good about an event associated with death.

Despite yesterday’s outsized ranges in stock indexes, it was another day of deceleration. Nothing was technically extreme, and the focus of the post-mortem was Powell’s blunt clarity.

This is a 30-day June S&P point of control (POC) study with select compression profiles isolating the “wiggle low” formed on April 7, 8, and 9. The dominant POC above at 5660 formed from March 10 to April 1, and the April 2–April 17 ranges with the emerging POC at 5440.

Single prints under the market imply very strong support; between 5300 and 5500, a mushy range; and above 5600, dense resistance. Unfortunately, Bloomberg charting is still using graphics from the Mesozoic era, and Substack’s graphics are incompatible with BBG, so you’ll need to squint to see the levels.

In a nutshell, prices are beginning a period of horizontal development, discounting new information and narratives …and healing.

Gold is still doing its thing with no signs of failure. OI rose 15k yesterday, volume improved. Oscillators are not especially overbought, considering the angle of ascent.

If you’re not in this gold move, here are 3 levels I would expect gold to hold: 1) a well-defined single print inflection at $3270, 2) the POC at $3240, which is so dominant it should act like a magnet on any meaningful sell-off, and if there is an overshoot, another single print inflection at $3165.

It would be easier to trade gold if there were broader coverage of the industry, news and views, commentary, and opinion from market makers and banks that actually handle the flows… but gold is a dark room, not unlike the silent, secretive vaults in which it is hidden. So we have to make do with what we have.

Silver started to weaken yesterday afternoon on schedule, and it’s lower this morning. SLV trading $29.47. OI still falling, volume still decelerating. Prices are not overbought or oversold. Considering the past pattern of these expiries, I would expect a quiet session with prices softening towards the 4 PM SLV settlements.

WTI is a little higher this morning on low volume, a very low T range nudging the bottom of a severe void. No news, benign DOE data yesterday. I am beginning to think OPEC, meaning major Middle Eastern producers and Russia, are not actually increasing production at all. Some get more, some get less. Refiners run their barrels, and products flow downstream. No stress. More range tarding.

April CME BTC futures are about to enter the April/May roll, charging their faithful $1000 per lot for the privilege of being down 20% for another month. Don’t worry, I chuckle. Saylor says we’re going to 20 trillion, making one coin worth the entirety of all known above-ground gold from genesis to present.

my vibe

Allow me to wish you all a Happy Easter, one of my favorite holidays. Lol… I can remember honking the horn for the last one of my 3 daughters, dressed in their best dresses and patent leather shoes, late for church as usual on a chilly, sunny spring day, praying (good word) there was still a spot in the parking lot. I wore a tie, my wife in Chanel, two mallards with their ducklings in tow.

Of course, someone’s hair was not just right, and we were always late. In front of us in the pews, my neighbor had three sons of similar age who wouldn’t sit still, wouldn’t be quiet, and wouldn’t stop turning around to gawk at my girls.

In the morning, I would put a trail of jelly beans from their bedrooms down the stairs, through the house, under the sofas, kitchen, into the garage, and back to a treasure hunt with clues leading to the mailbox and the washing machine and finally to a basket of candy.

Easter was our day in the family rotation of holidays; someone else had Christmas, Thanksgiving, etc. We had eleven girls, cousins from 3 to 15 years old, no boys. Then came the traditional egg hunt, but I used plastic eggs, and I put money in them, maybe 100 colored eggs with quarters, and 1 with a 10-dollar bill. I had to handicap the older girls and let the toddlers go first, and of course, there was a chorus of how unfair it was. Life.

Good luck today.

JJ

If you like reading market vibes please hit the like button, and type in your e mail below to become a subscriber.

Share selectively with friends and colleagues and follow me on X @Alyosha745

Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

Market vibes is not a registered investment advisor, and comments are for informational use only. Any mention of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or any other instrument. Market vibes makes no representations as to the accuracy of data or any attributions.