it's all relative
market vibes
April 21…)
in the news
Q1 2026 earnings season for the S&P 500 is off to a strong start with a sixth straight quarter of double-digit growth and the strongest revenue since Q3 2022… 88% beat EPS estimates (10% of companies reporting).
Christine Lagarde says we’re going to have a food crisis. Everyone says we’re going to have a debt crisis. Jay Powell says we are already having a jobs crisis and of course the we are in the greatest energy crisis in history.
However, ag prices are moderate on the CBOT. Food is globally abundant and relatively cheap. Inflation is tame and interest rates are relatively low (or high). Gasoline is 40% cheaper in 2008 dollars than it was 18 years ago and nominally 20% cheaper than it was 4 years ago but 40% higher than it was in February. It’s relatively both.
in the markets
June WTI is moving horizontally above a well formed isolated low on light volume. Open interest fell off a cliff as May expires to pre war levels. Whatever else one can glean from that, one thing is certain: smart money is long gone.
Since May WTI expires tonight, I moved the 30 day compression study to June. If you recall the May point of control or most actively traded price (POC) was $94 to $96 dollars since March 2 when the war began.
The POC for June in the last 4 weeks is $90. Simply put if we throw out the highs and lows in the entire 60 day sample… fair value has dropped an average of $6/ barrel since mid-March. Some depth on what I think the oil industry thinks and why…(next chart).
