Inshallah
market vibes
June 23, 2025
"We're not in the regime change business." Marco Rubio
In the news
Putin said, “There are 2 million Russians in Israel. That’s important to me.” (Source: via an X RTS video and Grok translation.)
Rubio asked China to intercede with Iran to keep the Strait open. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar (LNG) export oil through the Strait. The US maintains a strong military presence in all of these countries to protect them from Iran, not to attack Iran. If the Strait is closed for spite, the 5th Fleet is well equipped to open it. The Nimitz is expected to arrive today.
Major US cities are tightening security (NY Times). The war, per se, is over, in my opinion. Any reprisals involving American noncombatants anywhere will be terrorism.
GS a few minutes ago: “Barring a really hawkish bad geopolitical outcome, the outlook for oil prices is bearish. The supply side is very strong.”
Data this morning includes the S&P high-level survey of managers and business conditions at 9:45. Home sales at 10:00 should be interesting considering the ballyhoo’s glut of supply on the market.
In the markets
August WTI is reauctioning the upper half of Friday’s range, down $0.26 on the day. Volume was high in the Sunday evening session, so the London session may have borrowed a lot of activity from NY. I can’t imagine who was buying last night. Prices went straight down from the opening.
In the absence of news from the Strait of Hormuz, we may stay range-bound above $70.00/ barrel until something develops but the market trades very poorly this morning. I doubt the OPEC states punitively trapped by Iran will shrug and be quiet.
Spreads are weaker across the board, margins are higher.
A brief note this morning; metals, stocks, bitcoin and the dollar are still developing and rangebound. A few thoughts on where we go from here in the vibe…
