indefinite doubt
market vibes
in the news
According to BBG Russian exports are nearing record highs. Moscow has been one of few (*many) big winners from the Middle East conflict, with prices for its crude soaring. *BBG sees few winners. I see everyone with an oil well smiling.
Lavrov called Rubio on Monday and told him the evacuate all American from Kyiv. Your move Ursula.
ADP employment came in +37k. The fastest growing sector was leisure and hospitality at 38k (factory work fell 2k… robots?) paying an average wage of $23.50 per hour… indicating stable job growth in low wage jobs. Meta laying off 1400 in Seattle.
in the markets this morning…
The June RBOB front spread is collapsing. This is probably the best expression of demand for gasoline on trend and in the moment. Refiners are saying I have too much gasoline. I will sell my extra prompt gas at a discount and buy your July gas at a higher price today than I was willing to sell it yesterday. This has been going on since May 11. This is what happens when PADD3 runs record numbers of jet fuel. You get a lot more gasoline, too.
July WTI trading into the 80s with oscillators clearly negative and the directional index developing lower in a 5th day of lower highs and lower lows.
Ok that’s enough cold water in the faces of the shortage people. This is a compression study going back to the single print breakout on the start of the war.
