in like a lion
market vibes
March 2…)
"If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur." Red Adair
in the news
Most forecasting depends on one thing only, duration. How long will the world be passive as oil prices rise? And petroleum isn’t the only commodity of value going through the Straits of Hormuz.
Clickbaiters on X calling for a $100/barrel spike had to make do with $5.00 last night, but the forward curves imply angst and tension in coming days… especially Q-3 and Q-4. Gold is poised to leap or fail. Stocks are holding the lows. Wiggles in S&Ps and BTC are holding in limbo. Bloomberg says OPEC is going to increase production by a modest 206k bpd in April. However, they are considering a “shock” surge of new production if needed.
Starmer is backing Trump. China is not happy. India is going back to Putin. France is finding their voice and it’s only Monday. Some analysts think the siege may take weeks. According to X posts Kim Jong-Un has offered to sell Iran a single nuke that would wipe out Israel: "If Iran wants, we can supply them with missiles against Israel." (*subsequently denied by NK after my pulication this morning). I wonder, if that were the truth why Iran didn’t buy one from NK? Exactly.
in the markets
Last night’s muted opening was a gift to the shorts. There is no point in any technical analysis. Volume by the close in NY should be much higher. If that happens and prices close at or on new highs, buckle up.
Distillates are in short supply, up 14%. Gasoline is trading relatively heavy with 30 days of supply on hand.
The NYMEX 3/2/1 crack is flying on the muted rally in WTI.
The April/May/June fly made new lows at -.43 last night indicating April is well supplied. The curve gets progressively tighter as the front 6 rolls into Q-4. The forward curve in July, August etc. is doing its job but only as long as uncertainty about the Strait of Hormuz is foggy.
Keep an eye on this potential up wiggle in S&Ps if some early good news breaks. A close above 6791.00 = wiggle in force.
