hodl
market vibes
“Losers average losers.” Jones
No data releases of note today or tomorrow. Fed minutes on Wednesday. CPI & jobs data Thursday, PPI friday.
In the news
Trump says “[tariffs to stay until the deficit is fixed.“ This was a “hard no” to potential negotiation questions from the press on Air force 1 last night.
Germany wants their gold back.
Yuan deval chatter grows: Wells Fargo & Co. sees risks of up to a 15% deliberate depreciation (Bloomberg).” “China opts for stability over devaluation as tariff tremors give yuan a jolt (South China Morning Post).” This would escalate the “war” and rip the top off gold, I think. Chinese people are the leading buyers of gold. Good for US Treasuries. Flight to quality goes global.
Starmer slated to speak in the early afternoon in the West Midlands on “how this government is backing British business with support to carmakers.” (Guardian) Previews indicate he will address tariffs. I think this will be a key speech. it does not matter to markets who blinks, only that someone blinks.
Aramco cut May's OSP $2.20 for Arab Light to Asian buyers. This is a market share moat intended to shut down competition undercutting their deals for volume basis the board. Which at this stage will almost definitely happen, I think.
In the markets
Most of us slept on the sofa last night or napped at the desk. The early going at 6 PM was the closest thing to capitulation I’ve seen yet. Most of the board this morning looks better but still implacable.
The gold silver ratio spiked to nearly 109 toz silver to an ounce of gold and plunged to 100 in minutes as silver rallied to 31 from 27.50. These are moves in which quotes on Comex were as much as 20 cents wide in silver for 10 lots… and gold as wide as $10 dollars when prices were ripping. At one point the natural auction did narrow but liquidity was scant because computers by their very nature shun risk.
S&Ps made their lows in the opening milliseconds of the session and they’re trying to rally now. Fwiw, I put some stick ups on my screen that say “Diamond Hands” and “hodl”. I also have a rule whenever I’m down money on something I’m stuck with … “Don’t make it worse.” Don’t add. Imagine all the times since February 20 you might have been tempted and didn’t. Losers average losers
We have a lot more to get thought his morning so, let’s get to it…
