February 11…)
One nice thing about silence. It can’t be repeated.” Gary Cooper
In the news (ht SM)
Trump to Hamas: “If all the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, all bets are off, and let hell break out.”
Altman to Musk: “Keep your pennies.” OpenAI not for sale.
Tariffs are starting to grip. Trump hikes duties on steel and aluminum, plans recip on all European US tariffs (which are large and many). Lagarde says Europe mulls retaliatory responses.
I am seeing a strategy. Trump’s end game is the “External Revenue Service.” Every time a trading partner hikes tariffs on the US, Trump will “call and raise” existing tariffs and add new ones. Every tariff dollar that replaces existing tax revenue and the laws that levy it is a dollar of disempowerment, shrinking K Street and the deep state. In a sense, Trump wants importers of US goods to raise tariffs. In my opinion: chess.
Breaking: President Trump permits Elon Musk to hire 45 new DOGE agents to manage and audit the FBI, CIA, and the Pentagon…Via The leading Report
In the markets
Oil is higher on light volume, flat OI. I read this as a combination of OPEC pushback on Trump’s drilling mandate and immobile rig count. This is fine. Let it go up. I plan to sell an overbought point in hourly data with a money stop and keep at it until I get a good location I can hold into the shoulder and spring. I’d rather be wrong than out.
The higher oil goes, the easier it is to fund new wells, which will be drilled as long as Trump is President. So far, there is no technical indication the range will break in either direction. I think the bottom of the range is $67.50, basis March WTI.
Gold prices experienced significant technical damage in hourly data last night around 11PM EST: a high volume engulfing candle followed by range extension lower puts a spot light on the day structure in NY and the close. Icarus?
Continuing with candles this morning, prices are forming a clasic hammer.
Bonds, Yen, stocks, a few lines on other markets including coffee (the real drug of choice) and a look at the first quarter of the first 100 days in my vibe.
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