herding cats
market vibes
October 10…)
‘There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.” Sherlock Holmes, The Strand Magazine in October 1891
Pavlovian conditioning will reach its crescendo at 8:29 this morning as data stimulus surges into the markets and markets react with a conditioned response. This periodic drama of unconditioned or neutral stimulus such as NFP, PPI, CPI paired with rewards for desirable investment behavior have become a predictable bell ringing mealtime for investors.
Today’s survey vs prior data and revisions will either punish or reward a well-trained community of asset managers and robotic word algos. Since as much as 98% of all responsive activity is now robotic, the stimulus and responses are nearly perfect however random and divergent they seem. Everything is intended to unfold by design, even if it doesn’t, and we’ve seen more of the former than the latter lately.
According to BBG, GS thinks the print will be dovish enforcing a Goldilocks narrative of steady growth and low inflation.
In the news
Milton seems to have been merciful, expensive as usual but so far not even a patch on Helene’s tragic misery.
In the Fed-speak arena: Mary Daly opined the FOMC will cut twice before year end yesterday. Susan Collins was less sanguine, urging caution. Barkin, Cook and Williams speak during the session today. Bowman, the lone outright dissenter, has been silent.
The Mets beat the Phillies. Nadal says this is his last season.
In the markets going into CPI
Bonds are short with rising OI and priced for a hot number.
Stocks are long with rising OI and priced for a ‘whatever’ number, either dovish or hawkish is bullish.
In oil, and other markets
