half a loaf

market vibes

September 18…) 

“I didn’t have exploding beepers on my Global Meltdown BINGO card.” TG nails it, The Morning Navigator 

The imminent future, no matter how far from the present it may seem, is one of the few reliable known unknowns in our short lives. As Hemmingway put it so well, the sun also rises. And so, in this era of atomic clocks opening and closing the exchanges, ritual Central Bank meetings also measure the illusive concept of time. Today in a few hours the bells will toll at 2PM calling the faithful to worship. Let us pray.

In the news 

China stocks are in a doom loop, Pimco says markets are over their skis.  Nick T from WSJ says the .50 cut is an FOMC “regret minimization.” Wonky but true if it happens. Alex Manzara says, “[Post-election] comes with heaps of uncertainty and the Fed addresses uncertainty with liquidity.“ You betcha.

In the markets 

Yesterday was commonly bizarre. The Dow and SPY made all-time highs in the hunt for a 50 cut. Rates rose in trepidatious light volume. The dollar rallied leaning toward a .25 cut. Copper developed higher on decelerating volume and OI but its technical indicators are very chill, I think.  

The auction is comfortable above the 200 D MA, my 45-bar % D slow-stoch is trending nicely and its directional movement and ADX are solidly positive. There’s enough in this chart to take a long lead off first base waiting for Powell to throw a .50 bps fast ball. Even a .25 cut probably won’t disturb these technicals.  

In other markets