golf clap
market vibes
March 19…)
in the news
Statements by Rubio at the start of the conflict implied the US /Israel alliance is not aligned militarily. Recent statements by Trump and Israel confirmed it. Trump: “We have different goals.” and Israel. “The US was not informed prior to the attacks [on Iran].” Bessent says he may unsanction 130 mm barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage and he may do a second release from the SPR (now adding ca 5 mm bpd).
KSA says they are considering mobilizing their forces after attacks on Qatar. This a very important development, imo. KSA has beefy capability to help opening the Strait and a real peace at this point will require a real peace keeper with real skin in the game. Golf clap…
I don’t know enough about AI to opine on “these facts” but I found the implications of this X post a refreshing reminder the earth still turns and there is a part of it that still puts its pants on and goes to work every day.
in the markets
Open interest in NYMEX RBOB is down 25% since the conflict began. Precipitous declines in OI usually imply a reversal in trend. Not an imminent reversal. Sometimes the arc of the arrow has enough momentum to run, but the fundamental dynamic is plain: money is leaving, not coming in. Volumes are returning to normal.
Open interest in heating oil, a surrogate futures market for all distillates, is down circa 37% since the start of the conflict. Volumes are actually lower than they were before the conflict. This dispositive development for the moment but any increase in OI will favor the sellers. More of this dead ahead and some salty language so buckle up…
