gold in irons?
market vibes
“We lived many lives in those whirling campaigns, never sparing ourselves; yet when we achieved, and the new world dawned, the old men came out again and took our victory to re-make it in the likeness of the former world they knew.” T E Lawrence
In the news
Top headlines for the week are a heavy slate of earnings reports including Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Exxon, Shell, and Chevron. The trade deal with Europe is done (link to dets) Data includes GDP, core PCE, ADP employment, and the FOMC decision on Wednesday. PCE Thursday and NFP Friday.
In oil markets, refiners are reporting strong Q2 earnings, but their stocks are down about 10% in July. Most are reporting higher utilization and higher margins, but that’s yesterday’s news. Margins are lower now. The Houthis are back.
Hot weather: Tampa had an all-time high yesterday of 100 degrees. Heat indexes across the southeast => 110. New York City is expecting mid-90s for the next three days with a “feels like” temperature of 100.
In the markets
The bar for good earnings has never been higher based on stock prices this morning Victor Adair notes in his weekly wrap, “The S&P is up 33% from the April lows, the NASDAQ is up 42%. The VIX is near 12-month lows. The S&P is valued at 3.3 times sales, a record high.”
S&P opened at the 8th all-time high in 10 sessions on Sunday evening, despite futures open interest being at 18-year lows and a bizarre void of vaporous volume (alliteration!). I understand from the pundits “Mom and Dad” are driving the rally.
In my opinion, the height of denial on Wall Street will go down in history as the true record of note, not Nvidia or its ilk.
On tap this morning, a deep dive into gold open interest and the risks the EFP squeeze in Q1 and Q2 may imply, a weaker dollar and iffy bitcoin post roll. And…The Powell battle was lost in march in the Vibe.
