game of drones

market vibes

12 / 12 … )

Note to readers at 9:58 AM EDT:

Earlier this morning I wrote, “ If of course prices go higher there is no supply of physical to effect performance on SLV claims but these shares and options are cash settled.” In fact SLV options are not “cash settled”. They are settled with shares of SLV if they expire in the money. The shares of SLV are not convertible into physical silver, only cash. My very best, JJ Alyosha

In the news

Still no clarity on the origin and purpose of the drones in New jersey. Sighting now over Philly. The biggest problem is credible ignorance from the governor’s office and intel agencies. This is the homeland. Christopher Wray resigned. Oil traders know the location and precise movements of thousands of ships anywhere anytime. Starlink? Musk? Silence.

Speaking of Musk, DOGE cast its eye on the BLS yesterday as rumors of another shocking UE revision are going around for January (down 800K). A cultural make-over as a remedy to save the venerable institution from an AI iteration with better dissemination methods was mentioned in a piece by BBG. Word algos beware.

PPI came in hot.

In financial news, Rate cuts are all the rage. The ECB is expected to cut .25 the SNB is expected to cut .25 and CHF might be headed for ZIRP (?) Yesterday Canada went for .50 bps. China’s 10-year yield hit record lows yesterday. The question begs, “Can the Fed say no?” Thirty-year bond futures this morning seem not to care.

In the markets

Bitcoin is back above 100k. Oil is a bit higher. Stocks had a good night’s rest following another furious day of rotation. Today the Dow is cheap and NDX is expensive. Gold is quiet at the range top. The dollar index is steady at 106ish which is where it has been since Nov 13, precisely a month.

This chart of Comex March silver with SLV prices noted at recent highs this week might explain in part why the SLV P N L has been underperforming. As you can see silver goes up but SLV does not go up.

Up next up my final and last deep dive into SLV and why silver struggles to rally with such bullish physical fundamentals.