friday wrap september 19

market vibes

“I think greed is healthy. You can be greedy and still feel good about yourself.”

The S&P rallied 50 handles this week and made new all-time highs 4 out of five sessions. As I said on yesterday, “there is no more declarative statement in markets than a record high,” and the stock market didn’t mince words. The narratives are simple: lower rates and rising liquidity outweigh the risks of overvaluation and rising inflation. Gold and silver ended the week at all-time highs. PGMs and copper fell on Wednesday, steadied on Thursday but didn’t participate today. Bitcoin closed down $2000 today in one of the smallest weekly ranges since April.

It was a newsy week. Trump and Europe increased sanctions on Russian oil, and oil went down. The FOMC cut rates, and yields went up. Trump went to the UK and brought home a 350-billion-dollar deal. A political crisis erupted in Paris yesterday following the collapse of the French government on September 8. I think Macron is done. Paris is not LA. These fires won’t burn out.

In Ukraine, Russian forces advanced in Pokrovsk, with battles in Kupyansk and Pokrovskoye reaching critical points. Losses on both sides are heavy and Zelenskyy says he’s winning (source: Russia/Ukraine war news, Al Jazeera). There’s a notable increase in tensions between Europe and Israel over humanitarian concerns in Gaza. My sniff is Trump has spent his last nickel on the peace train. What does that mean for markets? Trends in force will stay in force.

A few charts

In weekly data, the S&P posted a third week of higher highs and higher lows on surging open interest and very high volume. Stock indexes have been suffering from a lack of aggregate OI and low volume for months. Weekly open interest in the S&P hit the second-highest level since March 4, 2024.

Next up, gold of course and trapped money in silver, oil from a classic technical and fundamental perspective and …bitcoin’s best ally is time in the vibe…