friday wrap, march 13
market vibes
A few minutes ago trump posted this:
trends and markets today
It was a busy up-week in oil, a bad week in bonds, a good week for the dollar and a manic week for stock indexes. Someone is buying bitcoin (ex-pat Iranians in London?). Precious metals couldn’t care less about the Strait of Hormuz, and the closes in stocks and oil felt like something bad is coming this weekend... we’ve got a lot to cover tonight so…
let’s get started with gold
In weekly data gold has not seen a single negative DMI red bar since October 7, 2023… blue bars for 126 weeks. It has been an incredible streak breaking nearly all technical and exchange data records. As you can see in the chart below, the stochastic has been going down as prices made new highs (I use a 45 bar slo stoch with %K -5 and %D -3). This is called a bearish divergence.
Percent D topped out on January 20 and prices topped out in weekly data on January 26, 5 sessions later. In other words the oscillator was going down while the price of gold spiked up. Percent D is the slow moving “look-back” is approaching its June 2024 low. If prices go lower this week taking that measure to a new low under 83%, that is a bearish confirmation. *Note weekly data settles Friday to Friday.
Oil looks like it’s going higher and so far higher oil prices have been negatively correlated with gold. Odd, but true.
In daily data gold prices have been saying the quiet part quietly… “I am not going up.” Inflation fears have been vexing bonds and higher rates have rallied the dollar but the war had zero effect on buyers in gold.
In a subtle sense, gold traded heavy all week so someone has been outsizing the war buyers with sales. Open interest went up so again, in a subtle sense the rise in OI implies sellers are competing for liquidity. Platium fell even harder. Silver has a similar feel.
Silver is finishing the week down $4 on the day after failing at $90 twice on Tuesday and Wednesday.
