friday wrap, june 28
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.” Gatsby
The news today, as usual, was Trump, then Trump, then more Trump, and around lunchtime, Trump held an ad hoc press conference to celebrate a SCOTUS ruling that limited district court issuance of TROs. For over an hour, the president took random questions on any issue from a crowd of what appeared to be over 100 journalists. His manner at these gaggles is very egalitarian, choosing as many he has never called on as those he often favors.
The mood in the room was convivial. And why should it not have been? The Iranian threat dispatched, a deal with China, and a landmark decision from the Supreme Court were presidential milestones. The BB bill, however, looms at the edge. The Senate has vivisected it into an unpassable House version. The savvy say a July 4th signing is probably not going to happen. Asked if he cared, he said no, we’ll do what it takes.
In the markets
Pre-market BLS data was mixed. Not dovish, but close if you wanted it. Personal income and spending tanked, favoring a cut. PCE was above estimates. A hesitant mini dip before the 9:30 bell wasn’t enough to dull the ardor of yesterday’s upward trek.
Around 1:30 PM, a sell order launched on all three indexes, and for the next 90 minutes, prices fell vertically at a measured pace. Responsive buying staved the spill, and by 3 PM, the auction found its balance above 6200.
A gush of buying in the final 30 minutes settled the indexes within a few ticks of the highs. The ATH for S&P futures was 6284.50 on December 6, 2024, about 60 handles above the settlement tonight. (S&Ps in 15 minutes data chart below)
August gold fell $80 steadily without pause for 6 hours overnight and bottomed on the equity opening. Someone in Europe had a lot of gold to sell, imo. We have seen this footprint several times this year.
It’s worthwhile to keep that in mind, just in case the dollar rallies over the weekend… all that gold is still in the market.
In other metals, platinum fell $64 with gold concurrently in London and bottomed with gold at 9:30. Silver fell .80 cents, most of it before 5 AM EDT, and chopped around in a 30-cent range for the rest of the day. Monday in metals could be an entirely different affair.
On the NYMEX, gasoline was particularly weak considering a relatively buoyant WTI market. Rbob open interest is falling like a stone. However, it’s still 30% above its 2024 lows. This looks like liquidation.
RBOB spreads were vertically weak early in the session, driving spot gasoline cracks to the lowest level since January 9, 2025. Why? Crude is too high, and it’s crushing margins. And with the war over, distillate cracks are coming down.
Cracks and gasoline front spreads are important. A barrel of crude is worthless until it’s refined.
In bitcoin, the roll is over. July BTC did nothing … again …on very low volume, settling at ca $107,700. Contango… brutal.
my vibe
Circling back to the Trump presser, he made a convincing case for the American economy several times. Factories are being built. Trillions of dollars are scheduled to break ground. Deals are closing. Tariffs are working. It would be foolish to ignore the pieces falling into place one by one. Peace, trade, the courts, the stock market. The Big Bill will pass, but it’s going to be written and signed in blood, imo. Let’s just hope we don’t have to pay for it the same way!
This is a year like you read about in history books, and it’s only half over! I’m not sure if I’m bullish on stocks at the all-time highs, but I am bullish on the 4th of July! It’s gonna be a great summer.
have a beautiful weekend…wherever you are
JJ
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President Trump: “I’ve instructed my people not to do any debt beyond nine months or so.” :)
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1938701620893888783
Any opinion on what caused the sudden sell off in the equity indices, JJ?
I was scanning the news at the time and the only somewhat pertinent piece of news was that the US stopped trade negotiations with Canada. The financial news websites were attributing the sell off to that but I find it hard to believe. It just doesn’t seem like a factor that’s major enough to tank the markets that way.
Anyway, after some of the slow as molasses days we’ve had, I sure loved the action today!