friday wrap, august 1
“Once you learn to quit, it becomes a habit.” Vince Lombardi
This was a very hard week. On Monday gold broke a 7 point T line from from the lows in Q4 2024.
And…Goldman sent a note out according to Bloomberg law, saying they were off the Comex LME tariff trade. Copper had a severe sell off (chart below). Data was mixed on Tuesday but gold settled under the T line for a second day (chart above).
On Wednesday Trump recinded the 50 % tariff on copper (chart below). I have read there were put positions that made scary money on that move. The FOMC did nothing as expected at 2:00PM and the metals markets edged lower with a strong dollar. Silver and gold extended their ranges lower.
Thursday was a non day for gold as usual in front of NFP but gold open interest today as of Thursday, fell 10,000. A tell, I thought this morning. I said it was unusually steady. I just didn’t expect a moon shot.
In equities the NDX finally brokeon Thursday but the DOW made a high on Sunday night and accelerated lower every day on rising volume and a cascade of expanding ranges.
Then the BLS NFP shocker at 8:30 this morning. No one I know saw this coming although I have been negative on equities since Moby Dick was a minnow. Even the president was pissed.
@realDonaldTrump had this to say about NFP: “I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee.” IMMEDIATELY. (ht Alex at RJO)
Among other items rattling the markets today, Trump said the US is moving two nuclear submarines in response to "highly provocative statements" from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who said, "Each new [Trump] ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war."
The president continued, “I have ordered two nuclear submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions, just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that.” Happy Friday!
OK… let’s look at some charts:
