Friday wrap
market vibes
March 7…)
"With enough butter, anything is good" Julia Child
Today was a newsy session, a few highlights.
The US, Ukrainians, and Russians are planning to meet in KSA to negotiate a cease fire in Ukraine. Oil is hyper-sensitive to the war so, it is notable the “truce” negotiations are being held in KSA.
NVidia lost $1 trillion on this sell off in stocks.
Trump mentioned reciprocal tariffs on Canadian imports may start today.
BLS NFP and ADP jobs data continues to diverge… hard to believe they measure the same economy.
In the markets
May WTI prices never made it to the sell zone that I outlined this morning but it came close. Oil prices are a binary war and peace narrative now.
Bonds rallied on NFP and went straight down for the rest of session. Powell spoke at an economic forum in Chicago and said, “I expect the path to 2% will be bumpy.”(youTube). It’s hard to believe bonds were 10 big handles higher when Yellen was at the Treasury in October.
Open interest in CME Yen futures is making record highs in monthly data and daily data.
Net noncommercial length in Yen… 5 years, off the chart as well.
Continuing with Euro ccy, DXY, stocks and some thoughtful ideas in the vibe about carry trades and gold. Here we go.
