freak flags
market vibes
April 15…)
If the sun refused to shine,
I don't mind, I don't mind.
If the mountains fell in the sea,
Let it be, it ain't me. Hendrix…1967
In the news
In Germany this morning, ZEW investor expectations sank to negative -14 versus estimates of +10, compared to +52 in March. Economists’ estimates ranged from -20 to +60.
China embargoed Boeing deliveries, a multibillion-dollar escalation. Top official Xia Baolong said, “[The US] is after our very survival, arrogant and shameless, an enemy.” (BBG) Meanwhile, the free world has access to heaps of data and information, and it is becoming ever clearer, thanks to the universality of iPhones, that this is not a trade war…it’s a global rich-poor rebellion.
In the stock market, Bank of America says, “Investors haven’t been this bearish in 30 years,” according to a poll. For what it’s worth, the German ZEW noted above is a poll.
In the Markets
This will be a brief technical discussion with very few charts this morning. Nothing is moving; nothing is expected. In fact, this is the very void I described in the wrap last night. Stocks are a touch higher (more on that in the vibe). Oil is a touch lower, gold resting comfortably at the highest price in modern history. Dull market, bull market, or dull market bear market? Although the earth turns, it is decidedly an unhappy world.
There is a bearish flag developing in 30-year Treasuries. Volumes are decelerating like a stopped wind-up toy. Bessent said he doubts our trading partners are selling them. The market has doubts he’s being honest. I think someone has sold, and the supply is still in the auction.
Stock and gold are poised in suspended animation. What happens next? Lets take a look…
