follow the leader (corrected)
market vibes
January 29…)
in the news
Mamdani is getting some attention with plans to hike taxes “on the rich.” There is a narrative he wants to vacate an existing culture in NYC and replace it with an Islamic population. Too late now…. Tom Homan is in Minnesota. “I’m staying until the problem’s gone.” Another shutdown looms. No one seems to care.
In finance
Balance of trade came in -56.8 billion vs -42.1 expected. A weaker dollar should be good for that. According to Robin Brooks on X, “A weak Dollar doesn’t threaten the Treasury market. A falling USD means foreign central banks will intervene to slow the rise in their currencies. That means they buy Treasuries, which lowers yields. There’s a good reason why Trump wants a falling Dollar.”
Meta had a surprise beat and popped 10%.
Melania’s documentary debuts in theaters on January 30. Reviews online are utter TDS brutality. Jason Statham’s latest bone cruncher is looking good. Shelter.
in the markets
Copper prices took off last night in China around 10PM EST and they are going going gone. Various quotes in the press cite intense speculative pressures. In a nutshell… like silver… I think there’s a shortage. Technically, the breakout is decisive and part of a base metals trend. There’s not much else to say, other than follow the leader... which is copper.
April gold is top step today and open interest is down about 70k this week. This is not uncommon. Trending stochastics imply steady and stable buying pressure especially when they are above 90. A high reading for oscillators in a trending market does NOT imply an overbought condition. High volume in a vertical void implies urgency, not capitulation. Is gold overbought here? Only time will tell.
The immense volumes we saw earlier in the week in silver have resolved in favor of the buyers. Open interest has reverted to previous levels where the implication of a shortage of futures was a dominant pillar of the rally since prices broke out of the $80s.
