faith in strangers
market vibes
April 24…)
Incredibly “Sell in May” is just a week away. The “war” in the Middle East will have consumed an eighth week of our lives. Angst is fading to acceptance and distrust. Stocks are risk on. Bonds are boring. The dollar is even more boring. The mood is much more about why gold is down than why oil is not going up. Reason to be curious, part 3… in the vibe.
Despite a rally in oil on Thursday in NY, the patter in the press was actually an uptick for Iran. According to the NY Times the Iranian judiciary said the women and girls arrested for protesting were never scheduled for execution. Some have already been released others might get jail time if convicted. One can only hope. Talks are expected to resume in Islamabad today.
"It ain't no use in turning on your light, babe, a light I never node (lol)."
In financail news, earnings continue to deliver the goods. Intel shot higher on a booming sales forecast. Stocks have either been forecasting an end to the ‘war” since April 6 or discarding its significance entirely. Longs have excellent location. There are zero technical impediments other than positioning which can only be positive at these prices and …7000 to 8000 is just 14%. It is Friday. The casino beckons.
in the markets
June WTI is poised to leap on news. That’s about it. Technical development is nil. Open interest is actually low. Volumes are miniscule. I don’t foresee anything scary ahead. Everything is known except how time impairs conditions behind the Strait, especially for Iranian storage and cash flow.
fwiw…Trump said he favors a USD swap line for the UAE. If the UAE is looking for dollars … there is an armada of VLCCs loading oil in the US and someone is going to need dollars to pay for it.
Refining margins are holding at 2022 all-time highs but refiner’s equities are soft especially PSX (next chart). VLO is off as well.
