extraordinary

market vibes

April 22…)

“Exclude the impossible and what is left, however improbable, must be the truth.” A. Conan Doyle, 1885

Economic data at 8:30 and 10:00 EDT highlights the Fed’s measure of business activity.

As the eye can plainly see, on March 31 it was accelerating down. There are no estimates for the Philadelphia Fed’s report but the Richmond Fed’s data is expceted to decline again.

Chair Powell will not cut rates with the dollar in a severe downtrend.

In the news

Tesla reports into a weak market and a bumpy start to 2025, including burning cars and DOGE rage etc. Bloomberg opines Trump’s mockery of Jay Powell is to blame for “hideous losses” in the stock market as well as a looming recession and the end of American exceptionalism.

I think it is important to remember Trump is indisputably the most popular politician in the world, if not ever, and a manifest expression of literally billions of people globally, not just the American electorate. It’s silly to blame one man for the forces of the universe, immho. Although some woke historians do blame Churchill for the Second World War because he refused to capitulate in May 1940 thereby causing the death of 80 million people. You decide. lol!

The cardinals are currently arriving in Rome and will hold pre-conclave meetings before the official process begins, which at the earliest would be the first week of May.

In the markets

Oil prices are still probing a resistance void around $63.50/ barrel basis June. Technical deceleration continues apace every day.

The front spread is tightening as May is about to expire. if your betting the deals will come in weeks, stay in June. If not look for a spot to get into summer.

Dec Red Dec (the 2026 year spread) trades in mild contago. Cracks are stable in the mid 20s.

On to gold and some “out of the box” thinking at the 27th new high for the year, stocks from a high level, … the Yen, bitcoin’s Sysiphean range and more this morning… here we go!