evidence
market vibes
October 31… )
Trunk or treat, smell my feet! Give me something good to eat!!
Spending, income and inflation data this morning is expected a touch warm.
However the pre-ADP employment survey was expected 111 job growth and it came in 233 yesterday. From memory last month’s NFP was expected ca 160 and it came 254. Trends in the chart below look evident.
Shortly after ADP was released yesterday, Brainard was on the wires saying she expected NFP to be soft tomorrow! BBG’s pre-NFP survey indicates growth of 101k new jobs with headline at 4.1%.
In political news
Liberal icon and feminist author, former campaign advisor to Al Gore, and former life long Democrat Naomi Wolf endorsed former President Donald Trump yesterday.
In finance
Merck and Uber reported a sales miss this morning. Bristol Myers and Comcast posted a beat. The BOJ held rates unchanged as expected, but Ueda said higher rates are still on the table. Euro zone inflation rose 2% vs 1.7% last month.
In sports
The Yanks blew a 5 run lead and lost the series to the Dodgers in the Bronx last night.
In the markets
Starting with the VIX and its stubborn elevated levels my hunch is there is a a short position that has been trying to get out in front of the elections for the last 10 sessions.
A mixed picture in S&Ps. The bottom of the recent range has been bought aggressively this week but prices struggled to hold a rally.
There’s a big position in NDX futures, all of it entered in a very narrow range this week. Someone is going to lose … and that will help to drive vol and direction into the election and days following in my opinion.
In other markets oil, bitcoin amd metals are poised for moves… which way?
