evening wrap, september 9

market vibes

December gold posted another record high in NY on Tuesday, but it was a very lonely achievement. However, no shame for the relic. As they say, there is only one tree at the top of the hill. EUR, JPY, and GBP fell, lifting DXY from its lows in a tepid bounce.

S&P and NDX stayed pennies in the green, and the Dow was relatively firm because UnitedHealthcare rallied 10%. An SEC document said UNH expects a large majority of its Medicare membership to be in its highest-rated plans for 2026. GS and JPM were up 2% and 3%, respectively, adding to the Dow’s buoyancy. Oil was randomly $0.50 higher. WTI Q-4 spreads were weak. Dec/Jan traded a dime.

Breaking late in the day: The Supreme Court will fast-track its decision on whether Trump’s tariffs are legal. In other news, AAPL fell $4 on the announcement of iPhone #17, touting a better battery (finally!).

In the markets 3 charts

Gold traded a new record high of $3,715.20 this morning and retreated for the rest of the session. As I write, COMEX December is down $9 at $3,669.00 with a low of $3,665.30. We have a modest vanilla reversal, which could develop into an isolated high. Probably profit-taking in front of PPI tomorrow. Support levels are noted in a fairly wide breakout zone below.

S&Ps managed a limp pop, as usual, in the last 30 minutes of the session. Although $6.5 trillion in total leverage is a hefty load to carry, it is likely the bulls have ammo for the cut next Wednesday. But who knows?

Powell may not want to cut into all-time highs with Core CPI at 3.1% YOY and GDP at 3%. After all those curmudgeonly pressers to hit 2%, he might rather prove his independence than listen to the press whine about it. However, it would take a pair of cold onions to balk after the BLS labor data recently.

DXY was a little higher vs. its GBP, EUR and JPY pairs. This DXY chart is today’s gold dip. PPI is algo food tomorrow and it’s been a while since the dogs were fed. It’s an hors d'oeuvre for the CPI salad.

In other markets, bitcoin, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium were mixed and range-bound.

my vibe

“Beating the horse ’til it rots in its grave” is the best way to characterize the next few days. A broken department will thrice deliver empty data that only a co-lo server could love. If the deep state wanted to take a shot at Trump, this is the perfect time to drop a hot one. I’m not dovish on CPI either.

Either way, it’s probably “sell the news,” hot or not. After all, another million jobs that supposedly got us to S&P 6,500 just disapparated. The fact is, all those jobs in 2023, 2024, and 2025 were fake. Jerome Powell told us meeting after meeting, “The labor market is strong. The labor market is healthy. We’re in a good place.” It was the inflationary strength of the labor market that made his refusals to cut rates seem prudential… Come on, man.

Taking it down a bit, this is a very cool quote. It reminds me of Kafka’s Imperial Message: “I used to lie between cool, clean sheets at night after I'd had a bath, after I had washed my hair and scrubbed my knuckles and finger-nails and teeth. Then I could lie quite still in the dark with my face to the window with the trees in it, and talk to God.” Frances Farmer 1931

And finally…let’s go up tempo with Oscar Peterson this evening… sorta wish I had a black beret and a pack of Luckies (which I smoked for 20 years).

be cool daddy-o… good luck in Asia

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg

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