evening wrap, september 30

market vibes

“The reader of these pages in future years should realize how dense and baffling is the veil of the Unknown.” Winston Churchill, Their Finest Hour, Chaper 8

September 2025 was an impressive month. Gold rallied $400/toz. or 11%. Silver rallied $7.00/toz. or 17%. S&Ps rallied 200 handles or 3%. Bitcoin rallied $6,000 or 4%. WTI crude oil fell 2.3%. The dollar index fell 0.30 basis points. Soft commodities were mixed, but variation was negligible.

Trillions of dollars of wealth were transferred from the future to the present in just 2 major risk-on markets: $2.9 trillion in gold and $1.1 trillion in S&Ps. Finding a similar value for PGMs and copper is too much work for too little value. Simply put, XPT was up 14%, XPD was up 28%, and copper was up 8%. The notional BCOM was up 1.86%.

Short and sweet tonight. Just two charts plus my usual tin foil chapeau and cud chewing in the vibe…