evening wrap, october 23
market vibes
“It takes a long time to become young.” Pablo Picasso
Trading in the NY session was remarkably low-key on Thursday considering the news in oil. Gold and silver came in higher and stayed higher, unchallenged by sellers or any further urgency from buyers. PGMs and copper enjoyed similar mark-ups. Despite spot platinum trading in $35.00 backwardation to futures and vertical oil markets, the mood in gold and silver felt as if they had touched down on a smooth runway after a tumultuous and stormy flight from some faraway foreign land.
Sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft rallied oil prices 6% on the NYMEX as China’s major oil companies temporarily suspended oil purchases from Russia. Oil majors like XOM and BP were up 1.5 to 2%. Equities were generally higher on mixed reports. American Airlines was higher after lifting guidance, and T-Mobile was higher on growth in subs. Both had solid beats. Tesla and IBM were down 4% and 7% respectively. Intel had a small miss but rallied on an upbeat sales forecast. Pundits insist earnings are superb, and stocks rose steadily all day.
I usually don’t cover equities but the rest of the markets were so dull, and stock indexes even duller, I decided to look under the hood. JPM and GS continue to erode in a sluggish downtrend having given back all of September’s spectacular record highs in October. Netflix gapped 10% lower yesterday and closed under the 200 DMA today. Usually, if you’re long a stock and it closes under the 200 DMA, you’re in trouble.
September home sales hit a seven-month high on falling mortgage rates, and quantum computing stocks were sharply higher on reports of U.S. government equity stakes. President Trump is meeting Xi Jinping next week, and his comments have been upbeat on the outcome of some fairly tense issues.
Bonds dipped on profit taking ahead of tomorrow’s delayed September CPI report. Headline inflation is expected at 3.1% up from 2.9%, and core holding at 3.1%. A 25-bps cut pretty much set in stone for the FOMC next week; unexpectedly hot data could roil the FX and equity markets. Gold and silver were up 2.5%. The dollar was mostly unchanged.
Let’s look at the charts
Quite a bit of teachable activity tonight so I am writing for all levels of trading experience, mostly about gold but the usual markets, too.
