evening wrap, october 22

market vibes

“I don’t do favors. I accumulate debts. —Ancient Sicilian motto.” Liar’s Poker

Markets were relatively calm in NY today but there were a few items worthy of note. Among them a threat of new tariffs on China and severe sanctions imposed by the US treasury on Rosneft and Lukoil.

Last night I wrote: “There’s an isolated low in Jan-March which should not be acting that way considering the scheduled PADD 3 delivery narrative.” And I continued: “At any rate, I think there will be stiff resistance at +.01 to +.10.” I was spot on with my observation. The WTI curve wasn’t validating a “glut” narrative, it was spiking. Today Jan March ripped through resistance above +.01 like a hot knife through butter. Around 3:15 PM EDT, Trump announced sanctions on Russia via a post on Truth Social: “[tremendous sanctions, very big] ” he said.

In precious metals, silver and gold made new lows for the move in the morning, traded in narrow ranges into the pit close, and made relatively strong new highs in the post close. PGMs and copper followed suit, and all metals settled in the plus column. The dollar did nothing as usual. Bonds made another new high for the month. Bitcoin fell $4300 and settled near its lows. Stocks fell sharply on the opening and the Dow closed on the lows.

Let’s have a closer look