evening wrap, november 17
market vibes
“A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor.” FDR
A quiet Monday session turned into a minor rout around 1:30 PM EST. There was no single “breaking” headline at that timestamp, but stocks, gold, and silver turned lower together and fell apace. Grasping for something to print, BBG and its ilk agreed the source of selling was angst about Nvidia’s Wednesday report, a Powell speech on Thursday (although Waller was dovish today), and the BLS September NFP report on Friday.
Bitcoin failed at 96K before the equity opening and went lower on the bell. The yen had a spill as JGB yields printed new multi-year highs, lifting the dollar a few basis points. Oil closed $0.30 lower. This should be an easy-peasy wrap.
In the markets
S&Ps tested the November 7 lows and held. Every time S&Ps have approached the 6655 level, aggressive buying lifted the index, ostensibly on fresh news. Today, news yet to be brought in selling.
Technically speaking, this is a distribution top. Every spike lower since the rare-earth dispute on October 10 was genuine high-volume risk-off selling, IMO. Those buyers are now holding a rather hefty long position and an identifiable entry price at or above 6655.00. Looking at the number of days above 6655.00, their average entry price is probably => 6750-ish. Not a lot of room to be wrong.
If there’s an Nvidia miss, or a whiff of hawkishness from Powell, or a ghastly jobs report… S&Ps are going lower. If all three are negative, much lower, IMO (Powell speaks before NFP). If Nvidia reports a bullish surprise and jobs are heinous, that will be poorly received by the pundits. Charts and comments dead ahead.
