evening wrap, may 5
market vibes
“History is a museum in which there are few originals and many copies.” Alexis de Tocqueville
Cinco de Mayo commemorates the Mexican Army’s upset victory over French forces at the Battle of Puebla on May 5, 1862. If we had a similar holiday in America, which we don’t, it might be “D Day” June 6, 1944 or the Battle of Gettysburg.
An American battle of some consequence did take place on May 5, 1862. Union General George McClellan attacked a Confederate rearguard of 32,000 under Joseph E. Johnston with 41,000 Union troops as the Confederates withdrew from Yorktown Virginia. About 5000 Confederate and Union soldiers were killed or wounded in a few hours.
It’s worthy of note that in this war combined start to finish Israeli and US mortality is 62. Iran’s official mortality is circa 3500. Independent counts (source: HRANA) put it at 3,636, including 1,700 civilians. I love arithmetic. It’s hard to change a number like 62. So… on that interesting historical note, the “war” part of the conflict or whatever history decides to call it… appears to be over.
The ceasefire is working because the Iranians have nothing left to fire. They do have 3000 or more “fast boats” that can nip at the ankles of ships but even that has been substantially countered by Blackhawks. Given the choice of being in a fast boat (remember the cartel drug boats?) or a Blackhawk… is not a choice.
The blood-letting is finished. This is the beginning of the end for the American chapter which will be brief… in my opinion
Hegseth’s live update this morning amplified a mildly dovish mood as the overnight markets entered NY. Bonds rallied, gold rallied. Stocks already higher extended their ranges into another day of all-time highs. Too much wolf calling and shrill shortage note from Goldman held oil in check. Crude won’t move until the green lights are on in the Strait… and stay on.
in the markets lots of charts tonight
There is a small inconclusive down wedge in June WTI that is holding a flat bottom at $99 to $100. In this form sellers are becoming more aggressive lowering their offers since the $110.00 high on April 29 while buyers wait patiently to get filled below the market. When $100/barrel bids are filled sellers will offer prices down looking for buyers at lower levels.
Final open interest as of May 4 settlement is an increase of 77,000 lots since the April 21 May expiration ($78/barrel low). It’s an awful lot of risk for a market that has done nothing for weeks.
