evening wrap, may 29

market vibes

“The question isn't who is going to let me; it's who is going to stop me.” Howard Roark

What appeared to be a stunning reversal for President Trump in the moment last night turned into a technical reversal in the markets today. Stocks, bonds, and commodities ripped up and down on the tariff ruling and completely undid their gains and losses in the NY session. Primary trends and dominant ranges remain intact, but false positives are usually signs to tops and bottoms.

Gold fell to $3,270.00 on breaking news at 7:17 PM EDT and rallied steadily hence to its POC at $3,356.00 by mid-morning on the Comex. Stocks were up nearly 100 handles and gave it all back, only to trade lower on the the opening bell. Bonds and oil were similarly affected.

Powell accepted an invitation to lunch at the White House, ostensibly to discuss the economy. Rate cuts were discussed. The DOE reported modest draws in petroleum inventories. Supplies are seasonally normal, except distillates at a 52-week low, which is a reflection of low margins, not a shortage. Runs, utilization, exports, imports, and demand are all seasonally normal.

Later in the day, an appeals court allowed the Trump tariffs to remain in place during the appeals process (15:10 EDT).

Let’s have a look at some charts.

December ’25 WTI is down $1.12 as I write at 15:20 EDT. The consensus view of the tariff ruling was quickly discounted as temporary, and the realities of another increase in quotas resumed its influence gradually… then all at once.

July gasoline is trading at or below the lowest settlement since May 8. Cracks and spreads were weak again.

DXY, Treasuries, gold, bitcoin and stocks on deck…plus, nothing to write home about… in the vibe.