evening wrap, may 21
market vibes
The NY session on Thurday featured another day of relentless misinformation about everything oil and a see-saw market grinding its hips like stripper. Trends with trends and counter-trends reamined in force. The latest item to sway the day is quoted below.
Basha باشا…: “Saudi’s @AlArabiya TV has obtained what it describes as the final draft of a prospective Pakistani mediated U.S.-Iran agreement, reportedly set to be announced within hours. [It does not align with what I am hearing].” If oil is down on this, it’ll be higher tomorrow.
Financial news was less inflential. NVidia delivered earnings and sales growth so extraordinary yesterday the stock fell 3%. GS traded at an all time high of $999.50 today: up >100% in 13 months. Campbell’s Soup fell to the lowest price in 30 years. And… PM miners are buying back their stocks.
in the markets
July WTI ended the session on a negative note as the latest news from negotiations was positive, details noted above. However there is considerable pushback from the GCC to IRGC control of the Strait. These producers are flourishing with the blockade so they are not in a hurry to go for a deal that is anything less than better.
Open interest fell 80k in the May expiration. It will be interesting to see CFTC COTs tomorrow… the last two expirations MM specs sold about 50,000 lots of mixed crude and products. Volume was moderate. The highest hourly volume is on bearish news. RBOB is down $0.30 cents since Monday.
in other markets
Bitcoin, stocks, and metals continued to improve following last Friday’s plunge. FWIW there has yet to be any narrative explanation for the sharp drop last week. Bonds and FX are rolling to September. Bonds responsive to peace news. WMT reported weak sales for the 1 quater and the stock dropped 7%. Management observed poor people are struggling… seriously.
I did not write a monring note today because there is really nothing to write about nor do I think there will be until the SOH is settled. There was no point in analyzing charts tonight because there’s not enough development to analyze.
my vibe
Whether this was a real war or a military argument doesn’t seem to matter. Persia is still there… where it has been for thousands of years. Trump will still be the POTUS. It seems the IRGC will remain in power which in the end is a win for them. That is why Trump can’t leave without the uranium. So … there it is.
Trump wars are consistently brief and profitable. Apart from 2 or 3 countries that got the short straw this time…. every producing oil nation and every oil company on earth is making massively more money than ever. Funny how that works.
The idea people make investment decisions reading X posts and TBTF bank research is a mystery. Money is so hard to earn and hard to keep. AI bots and X posters don’t pay your margin calls. Banks don’t pay your bills. You pay theirs.
giant pandas are officially no longer classified as endangered
night all… good luck in asia
JJ
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The world blames iran for 'closing' SOH. From what i know, International maritime law states ownership of waterways 12 miles from the coast of a soverign nation. For the US I am sure its more. But for Iran - this doesnt seem to apply. Many rules of engagement have been forgotten. The double standard is amazing - and we accept it! Still oil at 100 - obviously we live in an apparition of reality. Any effort to decode what's really going on is a fools errand.
Good night JJ.
Re: your morning updates. I look forward to them every morning and even if there's not a lot of action just hearing your take on what you think is going on is valued.