Thank you for your thoughts and insights JJ! Like most of us here, I get spammed everyday with emails but this is one I look forward to reading each time you send.
As a retired Australian small investor who has done nicely out of gold miners over the last 2 years - I walked away as soon as the market opened Monday morning. The market has always been a casino, but now the mob is running the casino.
I'm with Mike Green - the market is dominated by passive flows. Value investing and economic theory has become irrelevant. Now we go the "track" not to assess the form but to check out which of the horses is juiced and which one has been given the slows.
Trump is a Corleone and Bessent his consigliere. Trump's March quarter trading says to me that he wants to get as much out of the market for himself; his family and his cronies before the stewards catch up with him. He knows he can't juice his favourites forever and the Iran war and Warsh are just good fall guys.
Time for this old cynic to walk away and watch the mugs (ie 90% of the population) lose their shirts. Such is life.
I hope AOC wins the 2028 Presidency just so Trump and Lutnick and Hegseth all get a nice room in the Jeffrey Epstein wing at Rikers. Not that she will be good for the US or the world economy. But the Robber Baron class have got it coming.
Agreed on most. You lost me on AOC. She entered Congress with 12.500 USD of assets. Now she's north of 25 Million. Except the level, what's better there? Note, she's still an apprentice....
Fact checkers started their business when the truth became dangerous. Just after 9/11 Snope was the first I recognised. Meanwhile they mushroom everywhere like it's permanent October.😁
Biden drew down the SPR by sales not swaps to 347 million bbls in June 2023. By March 2026 it had only been replenished to 415 million bbls, at around 2 million bbls per month. The current swap deals want repayment starting in November and they expect it to all be paid back by end of 2028. Assuming the whole 172 million bbls promised is withdrawn they are to repay 200 million. That's over 8 million bbls per month. Where's that oil going to come from? Currently the US produces 13 million bopd and consumes 20 million. That consumption of course includes products that are refined then exported. Most of that extra oil will be imported.
I don't know but I assume that the other countries that are participating in the 400 million barrels emergency release have somewhat similar arrangements to refill their reserves. So you need to factor that into your calculation of surplus oil flooding the market.
Hey JJ. What's your take on Secretary Wright? He seems to talk a good game and stays out of the drama vs some of the other members of the cabinet. I should ask Claude what the sec of energy actually does.
Cushing is usually around 25 million bbls now. It's lost its significance. Most inventory is held in the PADD 3 Gulf Coast refiners stocks. But the WTI contract specifies Cushing.
that Hedgeye chart is plain criminal. Zoom out a few years and it's a blip. compared to what Biden did after Russia invaded... wow. and since it's a loan to be paid back over time, the net effect to be an increase in the SPR.
also, if this is such a massive concern, why was oil -6% on these YUGE draw downs of inventory? i mean, as a trader, when i see that kind of action, i have to fade it... i think WTI is about to go sub $80 soon.... no idea what is going to happen in Iran..
Biden drawing the SPR down to 347 million bbls in June/July 2023 was the lowest it was ever drawn down since it was filled in 2009. In 2009 it was 726 million bbls btw. Congress mandated settings sales to raise funds for various things but when Biden started drawing it was over 600 million. If the whole 172 million bbls are pulled out will be the lowest since the early days of stocking it in the 1980s.
Thank you for your thoughts and insights JJ! Like most of us here, I get spammed everyday with emails but this is one I look forward to reading each time you send.
Ty sir.
She’s obviously parroting a Bloomy post which is actually just shitty AI.
This sentence made me fall out of my chair laughing. Thank you for making my day!!!
As a retired Australian small investor who has done nicely out of gold miners over the last 2 years - I walked away as soon as the market opened Monday morning. The market has always been a casino, but now the mob is running the casino.
I'm with Mike Green - the market is dominated by passive flows. Value investing and economic theory has become irrelevant. Now we go the "track" not to assess the form but to check out which of the horses is juiced and which one has been given the slows.
Trump is a Corleone and Bessent his consigliere. Trump's March quarter trading says to me that he wants to get as much out of the market for himself; his family and his cronies before the stewards catch up with him. He knows he can't juice his favourites forever and the Iran war and Warsh are just good fall guys.
Time for this old cynic to walk away and watch the mugs (ie 90% of the population) lose their shirts. Such is life.
I hope AOC wins the 2028 Presidency just so Trump and Lutnick and Hegseth all get a nice room in the Jeffrey Epstein wing at Rikers. Not that she will be good for the US or the world economy. But the Robber Baron class have got it coming.
Time wounds all heels.
Agreed on most. You lost me on AOC. She entered Congress with 12.500 USD of assets. Now she's north of 25 Million. Except the level, what's better there? Note, she's still an apprentice....
Yes, AOC has morphed from a rebel to a young Nancy Pelosi. Captured now.
Your source of the claim about AOC’s net worth? You must have got it from Social Lies.
https://www.ocasiocortez.com/fact-checks/fact-check-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-does-not-have-a-net-worth-of-29-million
Fact checkers started their business when the truth became dangerous. Just after 9/11 Snope was the first I recognised. Meanwhile they mushroom everywhere like it's permanent October.😁
Sure, always do. I'm on no "Social Media" . Nowhere.
T’was ever thus.
Biden drew down the SPR by sales not swaps to 347 million bbls in June 2023. By March 2026 it had only been replenished to 415 million bbls, at around 2 million bbls per month. The current swap deals want repayment starting in November and they expect it to all be paid back by end of 2028. Assuming the whole 172 million bbls promised is withdrawn they are to repay 200 million. That's over 8 million bbls per month. Where's that oil going to come from? Currently the US produces 13 million bopd and consumes 20 million. That consumption of course includes products that are refined then exported. Most of that extra oil will be imported.
I don't know but I assume that the other countries that are participating in the 400 million barrels emergency release have somewhat similar arrangements to refill their reserves. So you need to factor that into your calculation of surplus oil flooding the market.
Hey JJ. What's your take on Secretary Wright? He seems to talk a good game and stays out of the drama vs some of the other members of the cabinet. I should ask Claude what the sec of energy actually does.
AK North Slope Crude around $115.00-happy for state revenues. If our local folks F this one up we are done. The gas line is teed up and ready to go.
Cushing is usually around 25 million bbls now. It's lost its significance. Most inventory is held in the PADD 3 Gulf Coast refiners stocks. But the WTI contract specifies Cushing.
Why are Currie and Rory Johnston numbers so different
that Hedgeye chart is plain criminal. Zoom out a few years and it's a blip. compared to what Biden did after Russia invaded... wow. and since it's a loan to be paid back over time, the net effect to be an increase in the SPR.
also, if this is such a massive concern, why was oil -6% on these YUGE draw downs of inventory? i mean, as a trader, when i see that kind of action, i have to fade it... i think WTI is about to go sub $80 soon.... no idea what is going to happen in Iran..
Biden drawing the SPR down to 347 million bbls in June/July 2023 was the lowest it was ever drawn down since it was filled in 2009. In 2009 it was 726 million bbls btw. Congress mandated settings sales to raise funds for various things but when Biden started drawing it was over 600 million. If the whole 172 million bbls are pulled out will be the lowest since the early days of stocking it in the 1980s.