evening wrap, may 19

market vibes

This is a very short wrap with a few charts tonight because the world is still in limbo. Guessing what will happen has been expensive so almost everyone has stopped guessing, including me.

Many graduating classes are booing commencement speakers boosting AI in their speeches. Scott Borchetta, CEO of the label that signed Taylor Swift said this to the class of 2026 at Middle Tennessee State University: ““Deal with it. Like I said, it’s a tool. You can hear me now or pay me later.” What an a-hat. More on that in the vibe.

NVidia reports after the close tomorrow.The suspense is unbearable.

in the markets

July WTI settled at a new high close, usually a bullish development. However, $103.87/barrel is a lot lower than $120.00/barrel that traded on the evening of March 9.

I copied this next chart from my March 10 note, “120 is the new 50” (in the archive if anyone cares to go digging). My point here is oil prices have traded as much as $40 dollars lower since the March 9 high print…and averaged $90/barrel for the duration.

WTI posted record all-time volume on March 9 of nearly 4 mm lots which has not been averaging < 2 mm/day. I get it. Everyone says we are going to run out of oil but China’s reserves have not gone down. wtf… NYMEX open interest is about where it was in late January.

What I’m saying is if everything is so bad… why isn’t everything bad?

Hecla broke the 200 D MA today, first time under the 200 D MA since last July. NEM is gapping down daily. These mines are raking in cash.

June gold is in spitting distance of the 200 D MA. If metals are not responsive to inflation and not safe havens, what are they? Asking for a friend in China.

NDX futures are up 90% in 13 months. If I buy it here… 2 questions. Where is my stop and where do I think it will be next year? Anyone?

my vibe

Random thoughts tonight… I’m not sure what they mean:

Core and headline CPI were +2.4% in February, less food & energy: +2.5% and trending down. In April headline CPI was 3.8% and core was still 2.8%… all of a sudden this month sulfur and hamburger are rock stars. Some analysts see 50% odds for a 5% CPI print in May.

Aramco earned 25% more money in Q1 2026 than Q4 2025 because oil doubled for the month of March. Same for the UAE and much better for Oman… XOM and all majors may be making more free cash than gold and silver miners, relatively.

Warsh and Powell on the same FOMC voting against each other. Powell said wanted diversity at the Fed. Inflation is inflation if you’re short treasuries. Inflation in gold is bearish and this is happening on record leverage and record margin debt.

College students took down Nixon and stopped Vietnam 100%… I know. I was one of them. These kids are pissed, especially millennials. If I were on the AI A-team, I would not underestimate that.

Millennials 1998

And so we talked all night about the rest of our lives
Where we're gonna be when we turn 25

So if we get the big jobs and we make the big money
When we look back now, will our jokes still be funny?

I felt a twinge of guilt when I saw this clip this evening…for the 1st time in 25 years.

night all… good luck in asia

JJ

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Charts and data CQG and Bloomberg… occasional cartoons by Gary Larson

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