evening wrap, may 13
market vibes
I was off the desk for most of the day but nothing moved while I was away. And everything didn’t move as usual on extremely light volume. PPI was hot, selling bonds at 5% was like hitting a pillow… no matter how hard you hit it, it resumes its previous shape. Oil was hottish but fizzled, stocks were steady.
Silver probed the high 80s and stalled. Copper made an all-time high and stalled. Gold spent another day of indecision. In general… the entire board was looking for clues from China. Instead they settled for oil hype and clickbait.
One of the gimmicks to lend creds to oil porn is to post it under the AI image of an Oil Sheik.
The fact is, crude inventories are up 30 mm bbls in 2026 and within the 5 year average. Gasoline inventories usually rise from October to March and fall hard as they draw into mid summer. Distillates are always in short supply because #2 oil is the minority of a refined barrel. If you crack barrels for distillates you get a glut of gasoline and no refiner wants a glut of gasoline going into the driving season.
This war post on X claiming “just in” today was actually posted in April.
Z-hedge and others repeatedly posted and reposted this chart of Chinese silver imports via UBS … fwiw, 528 Tons is about 16 mm toz or 3000+ lots of Comex. Hefty size but posting it at the top of an $18 dollar rally doesn’t help us. No doubt there are those who “knew” when silver was much lower.
Other notable items: “NVIDIA is now worth more than the GDP of every country in the world except the USA and China.
Liz Ann Sonders from Schwab said, “The rule of 20, which says the stock market is fairly valued when sum of S&P 500 P/E and CPI Y/Y equals 20. It is 32 today.”
Z Hedge said: “S&P futures, a new record high and yes: with 350 S&P names down, we may see the narrowest breadth record in history.” There is a lot of history being made today although few will remember it because very little actually happened.
CNBC Fast Money absolutely hates gold miners. The US wheat harvest will be a 55 year low in 2026.
in the markets
We have a 1 bar down in June heating oil. WTI and gasoline failed to build on bullish narratives and early strength. By the close they were lower on the day. These markets are not directional either way. The long biases are so dominant there aren’t any new buyers to take futures higher without hard news of which truth is a paucity.
Silver is up 25% in 8 sessions, rising again in a 6th day of higher highs and higher lows…. never enough when you’re right… always too much when you’re not.
Gold is speaking loudest by saying nothing which, I think, isolates silver in a good way.
