FWIW I don't think it's anywhere near over yet. Iran is not looking for a cease fire. They are looking to end the genocide and otherwise change the world and Russia and China are right there with them. Did you hear Lavrov's rejection of the GCC's begging request?
There is a big difference between power and force. Power is psychological but force is physical. Iran is suffering, but when we attacked them last time they lost 300,000 dead and fought for 8 years. They have a lot of bullets left.
Hi JJ: Interesting "correlation" between crude and silver sell-offs. I understood the silver sell off started in the Shanghai Metals Exchange. So please layout the interrelationship between London insurance interests and Chinese precious metals exchange or are you saying the silver sell off was initiated in London too?
I'm not sure... I just wanted to point two 8 sigma events on the same exchane in different commodities in the same 8 week time sample from a high level does not seem to be a random possibility. The murderer's fingerprints ... we have a motive. We have a suspect... just not enough proof.
I was figuring Mr. Trump would pry a couple of tankers out with heavy escorts and a little nudge between Putin and the Iranian Chief Justice a little later in the week. It'd give the market a little boost and keep Trump on top of the fold over the weekend. Iran can save its powder to harass shipping later until Europe is beggared and US air defense capabilities compromised, and then they can declare victory. I liked the Little Wings cover, but once you've stood up in the bleachers, loaded up with a 4-way hit of Orange Sunshine, and caught the vibes from Jimmi Hendrix's doing it from the middle of a pile of 3-story speakers, it can't be done again; like this war, maybe.
True that, sir. 100%... I have found girls can paly guitar as well as any badass rocker dude. just a little different. Some 10 year olds are as good hendrix... DNA? I wonder what's next in Music.
That is why Shakespeare implied swallowing poison is a poor remedy for sorrow. All wars are by their very nature a violation of human rights. Courage to change the things you can. Wisdom to accept the things you can't... (or something like that.)
"Fwiw… the US has a far higher sovereign credit rating (AAA?) and a much lower risk weighting than Lloyd’s of London (corporate A rated S&P)…. $350 billion was a mere bag of shells for Ukraine. At any rate let’s keep going."
Maybe the Market participants have a specific perspective on the Rating Agencies 🤔?
The American Revolutionary War was never finished. Before Trump’s term is over, expect the downfall of the Bank of England, LBMA , Lloyd’s of London and the cast of EU misfits.
For those who want to look into the "conspiracy" of the Financialist Kill Chain find E.M. Burlingame here. He has multiple essays on the City of London/BoE its origins and global reach. He has book that compiles all of his writing and research if you prefer that medium.
If a US warship escorting a China bound tanker through the Strait takes a missile hit it will be a huge blow to Trump and the Republican Party. The base is already split on the need for this war and a bunch of American sailors coming home in body bags will up the tempo. It's not worth the risk IMHO.
In WW2 countless US ships were sunk taking aid across the Atlantic to GB before the US entered the war. War is war. The only way to end them is to win them…. which take as much gondial (it’s a word) magnitude to lose as it does to win. In the end even hatred fades into the past. Let’s hope this is is the last chapter.
Whenever “8” or whatever large sigma is quoted to convey the improbability of such event, it simply means the underlying distribution is NOT lognormal, so the “sigma” measure is irrelevant. Had the negative price movement of crude oil during COVID been incorporated into the distribution of crude oil movement, I suspect the only conclusion/hypothesis is that crude oil’s variance is infinite, I.e., it could be following the power law distribution with extremely fat tails.
I don't think the Iranian regime can back down. If they show weakness then there's a good chance that the people will rise up and overthrow the theocrats. The only way they're able to stay in power is through expressing power and suppressing the people. The other thing is this is a religious war to them. This is good vs evil and the USA is the Great Satan and Israel is the Little Satan.
On March 18 2003 the US began major air strikes on Iraq. At the time Iraq had a standing army of about 300,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led and poorly motivated soldiers out of a population of 26 million. On May 1, 2003 Bush stood before the American people and declared Mission Accomplished. The US finally withdrew in December 2011 almost 9 years later. Over 4,000 American service men died between Mission Accomplished and the final withdrawal. We could talk about Afghanistan and I'm old enough to have had friends who went to Vietnam.
Iran has an army of 600,000 regular troops plus 300,000 reservists plus the Basij paramilitary volunteer force. They use a decentralized command structure that can act autonomously. A total population of 96 million and a land area 4X as large as Iran.
Keep in mind that Trump ran as the "No more wars" president. If you look at a map where do soldiers come from? New York investment bankers sons don't go to war. It's all Midwestern and Southern farm boys. MAGA country and they don't want their sons and daughters dying for some place they don't care about.
So far a handful of US casualties. it's not really a war yet... certainly not another Ukraine nor do I think it ever will be.
This fight has been a long time comming. In my life OPEC has bullied us and gouged us for 50 years. I think OPEC is over and Iran did the heavy lifting ending the era of cartel oil pricing.
Israel and the US have different objectives. We are p[arting ways there too. it seems the whole world is "going home" all at once. A good thing. Let france be France. If someone isn't willing to fight for the oppressed (including here at home) who will? take the bitter with the sweet sir...
I wrote "apart from battlefield mortaility" today meaning I think your view here is correct and reasonable.
FWIW I don't think it's anywhere near over yet. Iran is not looking for a cease fire. They are looking to end the genocide and otherwise change the world and Russia and China are right there with them. Did you hear Lavrov's rejection of the GCC's begging request?
There is a big difference between power and force. Power is psychological but force is physical. Iran is suffering, but when we attacked them last time they lost 300,000 dead and fought for 8 years. They have a lot of bullets left.
"No, we are waiting for them."
One day at a time.
Both silver and oil are heading to $200.
So they also have that in common.
Hopefully in my lifetime and peacefully... from your keyboard to God's eyes...
”… 806 trillion…”
Isn’t that the same number for the Total US Debt in 2050???
🙈
PS. Thanks for being a Complete Legend….👊
Hi JJ: Interesting "correlation" between crude and silver sell-offs. I understood the silver sell off started in the Shanghai Metals Exchange. So please layout the interrelationship between London insurance interests and Chinese precious metals exchange or are you saying the silver sell off was initiated in London too?
All the best.
I'm not sure... I just wanted to point two 8 sigma events on the same exchane in different commodities in the same 8 week time sample from a high level does not seem to be a random possibility. The murderer's fingerprints ... we have a motive. We have a suspect... just not enough proof.
Thank you Sir JJ, love the music at the end. I am surprised we haven’t seen GNR “civil war” yet 😉
Gm Martin...Great idea!
I was figuring Mr. Trump would pry a couple of tankers out with heavy escorts and a little nudge between Putin and the Iranian Chief Justice a little later in the week. It'd give the market a little boost and keep Trump on top of the fold over the weekend. Iran can save its powder to harass shipping later until Europe is beggared and US air defense capabilities compromised, and then they can declare victory. I liked the Little Wings cover, but once you've stood up in the bleachers, loaded up with a 4-way hit of Orange Sunshine, and caught the vibes from Jimmi Hendrix's doing it from the middle of a pile of 3-story speakers, it can't be done again; like this war, maybe.
True that, sir. 100%... I have found girls can paly guitar as well as any badass rocker dude. just a little different. Some 10 year olds are as good hendrix... DNA? I wonder what's next in Music.
From a faraway view this Trump Post is breaching human rights on a level that's hard to Impossible to swallow.
Of course I'm aware of the make up of "human rights"
That is why Shakespeare implied swallowing poison is a poor remedy for sorrow. All wars are by their very nature a violation of human rights. Courage to change the things you can. Wisdom to accept the things you can't... (or something like that.)
My goto is "the wisdom to know the difference."
That's what I tried to clarify at the end. While it seems (to me but not only) that Israel and US are crossing lines that we'rent even crossed in WW 2
"Fwiw… the US has a far higher sovereign credit rating (AAA?) and a much lower risk weighting than Lloyd’s of London (corporate A rated S&P)…. $350 billion was a mere bag of shells for Ukraine. At any rate let’s keep going."
Maybe the Market participants have a specific perspective on the Rating Agencies 🤔?
My money is on S&P Moody’s and Fitch! 😉
Good one 😂
The American Revolutionary War was never finished. Before Trump’s term is over, expect the downfall of the Bank of England, LBMA , Lloyd’s of London and the cast of EU misfits.
There is a lively narrative that is one of the reasons w’re fighting Iran… the Brits…
For those who want to look into the "conspiracy" of the Financialist Kill Chain find E.M. Burlingame here. He has multiple essays on the City of London/BoE its origins and global reach. He has book that compiles all of his writing and research if you prefer that medium.
Oh, what a rabbit hole that one is!
I would narrow down to CoL.
Loved the oil traders at the end 😂😂😂
The newly chosen Leader of Iran has already been targeted by (most probably Israel) and injuries are confirmed.
That's a safe way to Armageddon. If short term or long. Think Guerilla warfare on Home grounds of the West.
GM Petra... Sooner or later...the only way to end a war is to win it.
My last sentence?
Both Julian Assange and Edward Snowden pointed to the fact (imo) that in our times we have forever wars. Not intended to be won.
If a US warship escorting a China bound tanker through the Strait takes a missile hit it will be a huge blow to Trump and the Republican Party. The base is already split on the need for this war and a bunch of American sailors coming home in body bags will up the tempo. It's not worth the risk IMHO.
In WW2 countless US ships were sunk taking aid across the Atlantic to GB before the US entered the war. War is war. The only way to end them is to win them…. which take as much gondial (it’s a word) magnitude to lose as it does to win. In the end even hatred fades into the past. Let’s hope this is is the last chapter.
Whenever “8” or whatever large sigma is quoted to convey the improbability of such event, it simply means the underlying distribution is NOT lognormal, so the “sigma” measure is irrelevant. Had the negative price movement of crude oil during COVID been incorporated into the distribution of crude oil movement, I suspect the only conclusion/hypothesis is that crude oil’s variance is infinite, I.e., it could be following the power law distribution with extremely fat tails.
20x harder. https://youtu.be/IRI4wg40lPk?si=VHjOnVu0Np02qODM&t=73
Beautiful… lol.
I don't think the Iranian regime can back down. If they show weakness then there's a good chance that the people will rise up and overthrow the theocrats. The only way they're able to stay in power is through expressing power and suppressing the people. The other thing is this is a religious war to them. This is good vs evil and the USA is the Great Satan and Israel is the Little Satan.
Wars end when there are no other alternatives… all of them.
On March 18 2003 the US began major air strikes on Iraq. At the time Iraq had a standing army of about 300,000 poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led and poorly motivated soldiers out of a population of 26 million. On May 1, 2003 Bush stood before the American people and declared Mission Accomplished. The US finally withdrew in December 2011 almost 9 years later. Over 4,000 American service men died between Mission Accomplished and the final withdrawal. We could talk about Afghanistan and I'm old enough to have had friends who went to Vietnam.
Iran has an army of 600,000 regular troops plus 300,000 reservists plus the Basij paramilitary volunteer force. They use a decentralized command structure that can act autonomously. A total population of 96 million and a land area 4X as large as Iran.
Keep in mind that Trump ran as the "No more wars" president. If you look at a map where do soldiers come from? New York investment bankers sons don't go to war. It's all Midwestern and Southern farm boys. MAGA country and they don't want their sons and daughters dying for some place they don't care about.
So far a handful of US casualties. it's not really a war yet... certainly not another Ukraine nor do I think it ever will be.
This fight has been a long time comming. In my life OPEC has bullied us and gouged us for 50 years. I think OPEC is over and Iran did the heavy lifting ending the era of cartel oil pricing.
Israel and the US have different objectives. We are p[arting ways there too. it seems the whole world is "going home" all at once. A good thing. Let france be France. If someone isn't willing to fight for the oppressed (including here at home) who will? take the bitter with the sweet sir...
I wrote "apart from battlefield mortaility" today meaning I think your view here is correct and reasonable.
Bullied and gouged us to not support Israel?
Hopefully Trump or Stephen Miller read your substack. I am sure they will take that conspiracy and run with it.
Pam Bondi: Mr. Dimon, did you order the code red !
You’re god damn right I did!