evening wrap, march 2
market vibes
“We have a program in place to mitigate higher energy prices and Secretaries Wright and Bessent will begin to roll that out tomorrow.” Marco Rubio this afternoon (recommended).
Items of note in NY today
Zelenskyy supports US strikes on Iran (because Putin condemns them). Actually Putin is laughing all the way to the bank, in my opinion. A senior Iranian leader issued a fatwa calling on all Iranians globally to kill Americans. News flash: Ex-pat Iranians globally are celebrating. Trump thinks the war will last 4 to 5 weeks.
Losses on both sides after 4 days are light (according to Grok from official notices.) The Iranian Red Crescent reports at least 555 killed across Iran. This includes dozens of senior IRGC/military leaders and Ayatollah Khamenei. In Israel: 10 to 12 KIAs by direct hit missiles mostly civilians; injuries in the hundreds. And US military losses total 4 KIAs from an Iranian attack on a US base in Kuwait plus additional minor injuries.
Vital Military Equipment Losses
Iran has lost 9+ warships sunk or destroyed. At least 6 to 8 fighter jets destroyed on ground or shot down. US/Israel losses are 3 US F-15E Strike Eagles (destroyed by friendly fire from Kuwaiti defenses during Iranian attacks; crews ejected safely, no combat loss to enemy fire).
in the markets
WTI crude traded horizontally in a narrow range for the entire session on the highest volume since June 2025. Open interest continues to rise. A new high on volume, is go-fly.
3/2/1 cracks (chart below) are still vertical. Front spreads and the forward curve are unchanged from shortly after the opening last night.
Silver had a mysterious plunge around the Comex opening or a few minutes after, dropping 7% in 2 hours. wtf?
