evening wrap, June 4
market vibes
Apart from the stock market, which has utterly nothing to do with trading per se… Trading in NY was typically somnolent and desultory on Thursday. Gold recovered from yesterday’s swoon and fizzled. Silver did not recover and fizzled. Oil went lower as the IRGC shot rockets at the US navy and Kuwait and bitcoin tested its 2026 lows. Grains, seen in more detail straight ahead this evening, crashed.
In the free press today… Rumors of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia were going around on Telegram. The Gateway Pundit said that a Putin envoy said “a design agreement for a tunnel across the Bering Strait linking the US and Russia will be signed during the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum next week.” I wonder if they will charge tolls? Apparently the Transitive Law of Diplomacy is at work: Putin is friends with Xi and Xi is friends with Trump so Trump is friends with Putin.
I see linkage may possibly be connected by this next item on Chinese oil imports: Javier Blas is either saying China is importing fewer barrels of oil to help Trump win a war with one of China’s closest allies and trading partners. Or… China is cutting imports in spite the tailwind they’re giving Trump. If that were correct, China’s true demand for oil is dropping at an alarming rate... Mr. Blas is one of Bloomberg’s most respected oil analysts.
Meanwhile back in Caracas…
This gent has been calling BS on the oil shortage lately. However, he is not bearish on prices. FWIW the source EOA (Energy Outlook Advisors) is an independent oil market analysis and consulting firm led by Anas Alhajji (250k followers on X).
in the markets
The US 2026 corn crop weighed in on the fertilizer shortage today, making new contract lows and new lows for the year. It’s a good thing the IRGC is blocking the SOH. Imagine where corn prices would be if they weren’t.
