evening wrap, june 30

market vibes

“Humility, that low, sweet root, from which all heavenly virtues shoot.” Sir Thomas Moore, 1532

As if a whimper instead of a bang could be a surprise, a very dull day punctuated the 1st half of 2025. Stocks dithered a few handles lower for hours and finally turned higher in the last 30 minutes. Gold dithered a few dollars below $3300.00 for most of the morning and rallied into the pit close. As I write the relic is well on its way back to the POC at $3345.00.

The dollar was a tiny bit weaker against its pairs, and that was enough to bouy most metals. Silver and copper were a little lower and finished the sesion steady. Oil was down all day but still contained in the same narrow range. Bonds made new highs for the month! Bitcoin futures posted the highest monthly close since the CME listed them in 2018.

In the news, The art of the deal meets the art of war: Trump threatened higher tariffs on Japan for balking at US rice exports. Go figure…the U.S. produces less than 2% of the world’s rice. India is all but done and dusted.

Goldman Sachs traded at an all time after the Fed said the U.S. banking system would remain sound in the face of a simulated recession. GS results "were remarkably strong," according to analysts. Morgan Stanley says it’s still unlikely FOMC will cut rates at their next two meetings, putting the nearest possible date for a cut on October 29.

The tax bill is slithering towards law.

Some quarterly charts

Bitcoin had an outside range for the second quarter, finishing on the highs. I won’t rule out more horizontal activity for a few weeks or a month in Q3, but this chart looks like it’s in a hurry to go higher in quarterly data. Dips should be well supported.

Up next ,more quarlterly charts: Stocks breaking records, and the dollar breaking lower. I am still friendly to silver and… more of the same for H2 in the vibe.